Political emigration dictates new processes in Azerbaijan

Socio-political processes generating migration are different. People emigrate from their country because of the danger to live in their country. Other reasons are wars, ecological catastrophes, religious and national persecutions, discrimination, a severe humanitarian and socio-economic crisis, and also an authoritarian one.

From the reports of the United Nations on Global Migration it is clearly visible that mainly residents of unfree countries where there is no normal political and social situation want to leave the country. These countries are mainly Syria, Afanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Bangladesh, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan.

Over the past 100 years Azerbaijan twice faced a large migration. The first time it happened in 1920, after the occupation by Russia. Although there is no exact statistics, this wave of emigration has engulfed much of the national bourgeoisie and the political elite. Those who are in emigration and carry out political and creative activities in Europe and Turkey at that time could not have any serious impact on the political life of Azerbaijan. The ideological and military power in the former USSR made it impossible to achieve any positive result.

The second wave swept the period after the collapse of the USSR. This migration then increased and decreased, but it was quite long. In itself, it was also divided into two stages: 1991-96, 2014 to this day.

The wave of emigration, which began in late 1988, was quite high for several years. It was caused by the collapse of the USSR, the tense military-political situation around Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenians left Azerbaijan, Russians and representatives of other ethnic groups, as well as Azerbaijani youth, who reached the age of conscription. Part of this youth, who mainly left for Russia, evaded military conscription and mobilization. This trend has engulfed thousands of young people around the country.

Most of the emigrated youth acquired a chance to get education in the field of jurisprudence and technical sciences in Russian universities. Signed by former President Heydar Aliyev in 1996-97, orders to pardon individuals "evaded military conscription and mobilization" paved the way for the return of such youth to the country. At present, the government agencies employ thousands of those who have used these orders.

The main reason for the growth of emigration since 2014 is the socio-political one. Migration can be divided into three groups: labor migration; who left the country for education; people facing political pressure.

The reason for labor migration is poverty, lack of money, unemployment. These people temporarily left for foreign countries only for work. They do not lose citizenship and permanent residence. Their families remain in Azerbaijan, and at least once a year they come to the country. According to information received from the Agency for the Support of European Refugees, 89% of emigrants who left Azerbaijan for the EU are able-bodied people. Of these, 73% are men. If we refer to unofficial sources, approximately 90% of those who migrated to Russia are able-bodied men.

Most young people who have gone abroad to study, look for different ways not to return to their homeland. Those young people who have received a good education abroad, on return, can not find the appropriate work. Accustomed to the democratic standards of Europe, they can not live in the socio-political conditions of Azerbaijan and once again leave the country.

The number of those who emigrate from the country has grown, because they can not pay bank loans or are pursued for political reasons. Basically, this group of people leaves the country, seeking unofficial ways. Police persecution, illegal arrests, custom-made court decisions created intolerable conditions.

New wave

The question, on which we would like to focus specifically, is connected with political emigrants. Until now, political emigrants were largely indifferent to the processes taking place in the country. However, in recent years the situation is changing rapidly. Observations show that Azerbaijanis living in emigration have entered a completely new stage. There are a number of local and international factors, as well as an increase in the capacity of social media and their users in Azerbaijan. So, in recent years in Western countries there has been an increase in terrorist attacks, numerous human casualties, corruption scandals and facts facts of money laundering, which form a negative opinion on non-democratic regimes. The policy of local governments against such regimes is toughened. And it first of all affcts those who emigrated for political reasons. Against this background, political emigrants living in Western countries are expanding their social and political activities. Ranks of emigrants who make private protests in European cities is growing. Let the first steps of this stage not be so systematic, nevertheless, gradually the growth of their influence on Azerbaijan is felt. The psychological wave created by this foreign activity stimulates discussions in various social groups of society. Young people living abroad begin to use new forms of protest and instruments of political influence.

Emigrants, effectively using new media resources, are rapidly destroying the information and propaganda monopoly in Azerbaijan. For two decades, the authorities have mobilized all administrative, financial, and information resources to create an environment that is suddenly changing. In particular, this applies to the untouchable value system imposed on society, which is now rapidly collapsing.

The government is trying to suppress this trend by very primitive methods. The lawlessness of members of the families of political emigrants increases the interest of ordinary people in the speeches of these activists. The government each time complicates the situation for themselves. The action called "Diktatoru Tanıdaq" weakens the position of power in the international arena and within the country. Relevant state structures and those responsible for this sphere are powerless to stop new protests.

The fact that the activity of bloggers, activists of social networks abroad provokes a scandal, is also an indicator of incompetent state policy.

According to information from some sources, in Western countries, active monitoring of the "Diktatoru Tanıdaq" actions currently held in European cities is under way. It is still difficult to say exactly how this will affect the EU's policy towards Azerbaijan. Recall that the emigrated in due time from Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Libya in their time also conducted such actions in Europe. They have attracted attention of the international community and EU structures to dictatorial regimes in their countries.

It is clear that the authorities, which for many years forbade political competition within the country, have themselves created a crisis of relations with society. In social networks against one supporter of power in the debate are 20 or more people with opposition opinions. Monitoring shows that most of these people are not coordinated. Everyone independently irrespective of anyone opposes the authorities, which with a big difference loses to their competitors in the open political planes. The only force of power is the availability of administrative resources. However, historical processes show that any power so firmly attached to administrative resources, comes to a bitter end.

The Azerbaijani authorities should create conditions for the formation of a system of new relations, abandoning all primitive methods of repression. It is necessary that the authorities provide a field for political competition, open the way for free media, create legislative conditions for the activities of civil society. All attacks on dissidents should be stopped, dialogue should be replaced by this. The analysis shows that the acivization of political emigres abroad is an indicator and simultaneously a detonator of the formation of new socio-political processes in the country.