Is Moscow preparing to punish Baku?

According to information from the Telegram channel "Nezygar," the Russian Security Council, with the participation of relevant agencies, is considering options for retaliatory measures "in response to the aggressive escalation from Baku, which contradicts the spirit and letter of the agreements and treaties signed between the countries, including the Treaty on Allied Interaction of 2022."

"Aliyev has become dizzy from gaining control over Karabakh," says a source from the Old Square (a reference to the Russian government), "and has forgotten about the economic ties with Russia."

Russia has a wide range of options to bring Baku back to reality. Transfers from Azerbaijani labor migrants from Russia to their homeland (averaging over $1 billion annually) make up about 7% of Azerbaijan's annual budget revenue. Blocking these transfers would immediately impact Azerbaijan's deficit and state expenditures.

Azerbaijan’s exports to Russia mainly consist of fruits and vegetables, often re-exported from Turkey. Meanwhile, Russia supplies Azerbaijan with grain, dairy products, vehicles, and equipment. 30% of Azerbaijan's total food imports come from Russia. Moscow may exclude the Baku seaport from the "North-South" transport corridor.

Additionally, there is the possibility of blocking the supply of Azerbaijani oil to Europe through Novorossiysk, which would result in a sharp drop in Baku’s foreign currency revenue.

Finally, Russia may reconsider its policy regarding the so-called "Lezgian issue." This refers to the almost 100,000 Lezgins living in northern Azerbaijan, bordering the territories of Dagestan, where their kinfolk reside, according to "Nezygar."