Serzh Sargsyan will have to return Azerbaijan regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. In an interview with Mediametrics.ru it was said by Alexei Fenenko, expert of the elite Russian club Valdai, a leading researcher at the Institute for International Security Academy of Sciences, Associate Professor of the Faculty of Global Politics of Lomonosov Moscow State University.
According to him, the Karabakh conflict in April finally buried the Madrid principles on the settlement of the problem. Now Russia is beginning to "divide the negotiating process into three parts: it will separately speak on Nagorno-Karabakh, 5 districts surrounding it, and two more districts (Lachin and Kelbajar). There will be three different negotiating packages, which is the essence of the current Russian strategy."
"The official position of Russia is closer to Azerbaijan than Armenia. The position of the Russian Federation consists of three points:
We recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, and recognize that officially Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan;
2. We are opposed to a military solution;
3. The guarantees of Russia and the CSTO to Armenia shall not apply to Karabakh. It is enough to read the statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry in order to understand this," said the Russian expert.
According to Fenenko, Moscow’s discontent about Sargsyan grows. "But if we exert a constant pressure on Armenia, Armenia will just explode and we will have another anti-Russian state," the expert said. Nevertheless, Moscow, according to Fenenko, puts more pressure on Armenia than Azerbaijan.
When asked by Mediametrics.ru, why the details of the Karabakh negotiations are held in the strictest secrecy, the Valdai Club expert noted that Russia is very afraid of "hot heads in Armenia." In addition, the Russian authorities are afraid of the Russian public discontent and accusations of the Kremlin of giving up another ally. Therefore any specifics, according to Mr. Fenenko, could blow up the situation.
According to his calculations, the negotiation process around Nagorno-Karabakh should be clarified until February-March 2017. Prior to this, no large escalation in the Karabakh front will be apparently expected. -02D-
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