Expert: Russia Can Press on Azerbaijan

Baku/22.03.18/Turan: Vladimir Putin won the presidential elections in Russia with over 76% of the vote, thereby breaking his own record, according to official data.

The growth of Putin's popularity was also promoted by his consistent policy, which demonstrates historical and geopolitical claims to the fragments of the USSR in the person of the former Soviet republics.

The story of Putin's 18-year reign shows that he does not want to put up with the West's growing presence in the post-Soviet space and the pro-Western roll of the former Soviet countries. In this sense, his aggressive actions in Georgia in 2008 and, since 2014, in Ukraine were indicative. The latest sanctions against Russia indicate an intensification of the struggle for the sphere of influence.

It is clear that the conflict between the two poles has always affected Azerbaijan, which managed to avoid turning into an arena of open confrontation. Will the Aliyev administration be able to maintain the existing balance in the light of Vladimir Putin's re-election as President?

The head of the Atlas Center for Strategic Studies, Elkhan Shaheenoglu, told Turan that despite Putin's reelection, this election victory would cost him very much: "The West is increasingly tightening sanctions against Russia, and the scandal with Skripal has further exacerbated the situation. Sanctions against Putin and his entourage have a negative impact on the country's economy, as well as the social situation of the people. At one time, the US think tanks nurtured and implemented various plans to destroy the USSR, and, in the end, achieved their goal, and now the same think tanks are making plans to weaken Putin and Russia."

The political scientist noted that tense relations between the West and Russia should not affect Azerbaijan.

"Russia is our neighbor, with whom Azerbaijan maintains normal relations, despite Moscow's support of the occupier of our lands. However, these normal relations do not mean that Azerbaijan should support Russia in its conflict with the West. We must keep neutrality. And Azerbaijani officials must support the improvement of Russian-Western relations. Other statements may harm Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, some MPs call the sanctions of the West unjust, and it seems that Azerbaijan supports the northern neighbor. Moscow, seeing this, may think that official Baku is afraid of it, and increase its pressure. In addition, the MPs should know that sanctions against Russia are related to the annexation of the Crimea, which is analogous to Karabakh. Therefore, by such protection of Russia, some MPs indirectly turn a blind eye to the occupation of Karabakh," Shaheenoglu said.

The expert believes that after strengthening Putin's position as President, Russia will be able to exert pressure on Azerbaijan in the future if its relations with Europe are strengthened, but this pressure will not be strong.

"All regional projects implemented by Azerbaijan - TAP, TANAP, and Southern Gas Corridor are an alternative to Russian ones, and are conducted, bypassing it. This also includes the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway connecting Asia with Europe via Baku. These projects correspond to our national interests. In the future, Russia may exert some pressure on Azerbaijan. In this case, we must strengthen integration with the West. This does not mean that we, like Ukraine and Georgia, should set ourselves the goal of joining NATO or the European Union, because our relations with Russia will become even tenser. However, in case of increasing pressure from Russia, we must protect ourselves and expand cooperation with our allies - Turkey and the EU states. That is why it is necessary to try to sign a strategic agreement with the European Union before the end of the year. Russia should understand that in case of increasing pressure on Azerbaijan, it can lose it just like Ukraine and Georgia," the expert said.

Shaheenoglu excluded the option of Russia's mediation in the issue of resolving the Karabakh conflict.

"With the only condition, Azerbaijan can strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia: if it affects the Armenian authorities and ensures the unconditional release of at least five occupied regions. However, this is not expected in the near future. Putin is again elected President, and his position on Karabakh will not change. He is not interested in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, and he told Turkish President Erdogan about this. Dmitry Medvedev, as Russia's President, wanted to resolve the Karabakh conflict and organized ten meetings between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Putin prevented this. Russia has always supported Armenia and used it against Azerbaijan. This policy will not change, so I do not expect that Vladimir Putin will affect Armenia and accelerate the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. After all, with the help of this conflict, Russia holds Armenia and can influence Azerbaijan. Without the Karabakh conflict, Armenia's relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey will improve, and Russia will lose its last outpost in the Caucasus," the expert said.

According to the political scientist, Azerbaijan is not threatened with sanctions from the West for a massive purchase of weapons from Russia.

"We should have a lot of weapons because of the Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, Western countries, with the exception of Israel, do not sell weapons to Azerbaijan. Because of the Karabakh conflict, there is an unofficial embargo on the supply of weapons to both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Therefore, we are forced to buy weapons wherever possible. Over the years, Baku bought weapons from Russia worth about $ 5 billion, but the budget of this year does not provide for large purchases of weapons from Moscow. This means that Azerbaijan reduces the import of arms from Russia, and the West sees it. In addition, economically, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan is open not only to Russian, but also to other markets. Our main trading partners at the moment are precisely the western countries - Italy, etc. Rapprochement with Russia can harm Azerbaijan and make it dependent on Moscow," Shaheenoglu summed up.