Former Foreign Minister of Turkey: "Refusal to break with Russia will bring Turkey success"

***

Turan: What issues will be discussed at the summit in Tehran on September 7 with Russia, Iran and Turkey?

Yakysh: The key issue on the summit"s agenda is the Syrian region of Idlib. In addition, I assume that the embargo, which the US plans to launch in November, will also be discussed. Despite the agreement reached by the three countries in Astana in January 2017, we see that the positions of Russia and Iran on the Idlib issue are closer to each other. Thus, Turkey"s expectations on how to solve the Idlib issue will be raised at the Tehran summit. In accordance with the Astana agreement, Turkey undertook to separate the radical terrorist groups from the more moderate groups and to integrate the latter into Syrian society. However, it is no secret that Russia is dissatisfied with the style and speed with which Ankara is accomplishing this work. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking a few days ago to students, openly stated that Turkey is very slow in resolving this issue. Foreign Minister Lavrov said that he has spent 40 years of his life in the diplomacy field and has rarely seen anything proceed so slowly. This suggests that behind closed doors with Turkey he speaks even more harshly. This is obvious.

Turan: On June 29, 2014, when the LIH proclaimed the "state and caliphate" in the Turkish Consulate General in Mosul, you stressed that "the countries of the world will not allow this." What would you like to say today about the processes that began with Mosul and Aleppo, and continue with Idlib?

Yakysh: Unlike Iraq, Turkey"s behavior in Syria was wrong from the first day. Turkey has a great responsibility in the current Idlib situation because not only did it not stop the jihadist groups that moved to Syria, but it also supported some of them by providing weapons and money. Later, Turkey hoped that radical terrorist groups would peacefully integrate into Syria's future society. According to UN Security Council Resolution No. 2254, Turkey is a key player in dealing with these groups, although the location of some targeted groups is unknown. Recently, Turkey recognized the groups there as "terrorist".

In fact, these groups were identified in the Astana process, and Turkey was obliged to take effective action against them. However, at this stage we see that it is difficult for Turkey to fulfill its tasks and commitments, complicating Turkey's position both in the Astana process and in tomorrow's Tehran summit, when the groups that Turkey wants to integrate into Syrian society become a legal target of operations. Now Turkey has two tasks: 1) Ensuring that civilians are not harmed during military operations in Idlib, and 2) Ensuring that people leaving their homes as a result of military operations do not approach the Turkish border. At this stage, Turkey should work only in these directions.

Turan: Will Turkey participate in Idlib military operations on the side of Russia?

Yakysh: Obviously, Ankara and Moscow had disagreements over the military operation. This was clearly visible even at press conferences that were broadcast live. Foreign Minister Lavrov, who has a dominant diplomatic position, said this clearly before the students, and the media suggest serious disagreements between Turkey and Russia. This indicates that Russia will conduct military operations in Idlib, saying that Syria has the right to cleanse its land. Therefore, the main tasks of Turkey are to protect civilians and to prevent refugees from crossing its borders. Foreign minister Lavrov, who until recently adhered to diplomatic rules, by suddenly declaring this to students and the media is indicating serious disagreements between Turkey and Russia.

Turan: What does Turkey gain and lose at the end of the war in Syria? What concrete results might we see from the Tehran summit?

Yakysh: If at the Tehran summit the threads between Turkey and Russia are not completely torn apart, and their paths do not completely diverge, then it can be considered a success. Turkey, still demonstrating its closeness to Russia, tried to prevent the Kurds living on the eastern bank of the Euphrates from creating its own state. You know that the US provided a large number of weapons to the PYD / YPG team. Although the Kurds tried to create a state on the right bank of the Euphrates in cooperation with the United States, Turkey, which cooperates with Russia, managed to remove Kurdish groups from our southern borders (Cerablus, al-Baba and Afrin). The deteriorating relations with Russia due to the Idlib problem will lead to closer relations between the Kurds and the United States, further complicating the future of Turkey.