Iran is not capable of a long missile war

The morning after the Iranian missile attack on US military bases in Iraq, it became known that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had telephone conversations with all his neighbors in the region on January 4-5 and warned that Iran would strike at any US military facilities on neighborhood, regardless of whose territory they are located. After the assassination of the Iranian General G. Suleymani by the Americans, Tehran attacked American bases in Iraq and threatened with new attacks on American targets. What are the military-technical capabilities of Iran? The issue is important because Azerbaijan is adjacent to Iran, which means that a war in the territory of a neighbor can cause trouble for Azerbaijanis.

An expert on international relations, professor at the University of Regional Studies Hangug (South Korea) Rovshan Ibrahimov answered Turan questions.

The expert shared his rough estimates of the military-technical potential of Iran, which can be used against US military bases.

- Iran issued 15 ballistic missiles: 11 hit the American bases, 1 to the target in Yerbil, and four missiles did not reach the target. Overall, not bad. Nowhere in the news is it written, but apparently, these are Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles. They were based on North Korean ballistic missiles and their evolutionary development has a long history.

As it became clear, Iran has about 150 such missiles, there are about 50 trailers with which to transport them. In addition, Iran is capable of producing up to 3-4 such missiles per month. There are also prototypes of these Sanjar missiles; they are solid-fuel, as well as short-range missiles and Shahab-4, which Israel can overtake. I discovered the news that three days ago, the Americans were observing the movement of Iran’s missile divisions, and apparently, they did not celebrate the New Year, but worked.  The Shahab-3 missile price was not found. However, on average, such a missile costs $ 20 million. Therefore, 300 million Iranians have already burned. The initial results of the Iranian attack are as follows: 

The Americans escaped with a slight fright, apparently, they were aware of the attack (the most conspiratorial: we agreed with the Iranians that they also had the opportunity to demonstrate their viability, but hardly);

Iranians had the opportunity to test missiles from their territory to other territory. Learn how in practice all this will work;

Israel has received a ton of information about Iran’s ballistic missiles and will investigate them;

Arabs will spend more on defense;

North Korea is proud of its technology.

- What forces can Trump use against Iran?

- First of all, the talk is about the American potential of military bases in the Middle East and the US Navy. According to analytical media, in the US region is constantly holding 50 thousandth contingent. It can be assumed that before launching direct attacks on Iran, the Americans will start with Iranian facilities and specialists in Iraq and Syria.

- Only on military airfields in the United States are based heavy strategic bombers B-52. Can Tehran use this strategic weapon?

- For the operation against Iran, this technique will definitely not be used. The use of aircraft does not justify itself - it is far to the main points, a few hours. This is not practical. Secondly, Iran has a large depth of territory, which means that while they fly, planes will be shot down.

- What can Iran oppose American power besides its missiles? The use of Shabag missiles on January 8, 2020 showed their low efficiency.

- The point is not even the low efficiency of the missiles, but the small budget of the Iranian military department, which is not designed to carry out intensive and lengthy bombing. Resources and money will end within a month, and then what? The Iranians, as it turned out, used Zolfogar and Kiam short-range missiles against the United States, but these systems were also created using the Shahab technology. Missiles in Iran will quickly end if Tehran decides to launch a massive missile war with the United States.

- Tehran can command its "sleeping terrorists" around the world to begin the killing of Americans.

- Iranian terrorists, like missiles, are not located all over the world. Iran has concentrated its forces in a certain region, so again the question of military resources arises, even in the case of such original weapons. In addition, the Americans have their own intelligence information about such capabilities of the enemy.