"The authorities are preparing some kind of political campaign"

More and more new parties appear in Azerbaijan. In recent days, two more parties have appeared - the Azerbaijan Party of Democracy and Welfare and the other, the Party of Democratic Transformations. In an apolitical society, the energy expended in forming new political parties is of interest.

By the way, the process of registering parties continues. Last week, two more parties emerged - the Law and Justice Party, headed by ex-Minister of Health, former political prisoner Ali Insanov, which positions itself as opposition, and the Renaissance party. Solving the problem of registering a party led by a man who has been under pressure from the authorities for many years without any delay raises many questions.

What is happening in the political community of the country? Is work being carried out that will justify the forecasts of a number of analysts that the proportional electoral system will be restored in the near future and that new parliamentary elections will be held under this system?

Political observer Nasimi Mammadli answered ASTNA's questions on this topic.

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Question: For almost two years now, the main opposition parties have not been invited to events organized by the authorities. Why do you think the government makes a distinction between political parties?

Answer: Since there is no free and democratic environment in the country, the system of political relations is determined not by law, but by approaches proceeding from the corporate interests of the authorities. And although the constitution and laws prohibit all types of discrimination, in practice we see the opposite.

The authorities clearly know the range of their interests and protect them by all means. Any organization or individual that does not fit within this framework is excluded from its cooperation criteria.

At the first stage of these contacts, which the authorities called "dialogue", she appealed to all political parties. They were presented with uniform standards. The desire to put all parties within certain limits was obvious. It was known in advance that some opposition political parties would not accept this format. It is obvious that the authorities, starting the process of "dialogue", knew about this.

According to my observations, all interested parties in the country seem to be satisfied with the current situation and each of them is trying to take advantage of it in his own way. Opposition parties involved in the "dialogue" process see this as a new opportunity. They assure that this will lead to the solution of existing socio-political and legal problems. They want to shape expectations in society. Most importantly, they achieve positive results in solving personal and group problems.

Opposition parties outside the "dialogue" call this process an imitation and are not interested in participating in this process. It is easier for these parties outside the process to present themselves as real opposition. They want to receive positive dividends from this factor in public opinion. By subjecting the participants in the "dialogue" process to public condemnation, they try to hinder the imitation policy of the authorities.

This process is also favorable for the authorities. In such an environment, it is more comfortable for them to ensure their interests. She manages to use both those who are involved in the process and those who are not. Discrimination among political parties is an important element of government policy.

Question: More and more new parties appear in Azerbaijan. In recent days, two more parties have appeared -  the Azerbaijan Party of Democracy and Welfare and the other, the Party of Democratic Transformations. For what purpose are new political parties created when there is no political activity in Azerbaijan?

Answer: The “multi-party political system” has been abolished in the country; instead, there is a system with a large number of parties. Citizens do not have high expectations from political organizations; there is a narrow environment for legislative and practical political activity.

It is very difficult now to mobilize the will of politically mature people in society and engage in political activities. In addition, an attempt to act in these conditions, creating a new serious political organization, in itself requires a lot of risk, willpower, hard work, dedication.  Every citizen, united with like-minded people, can establish a political structure.

Such activity is in accordance with the law and the law. However, in an environment where most mature people are not interested in political activity, an additional political burden falls on politicians. And the attitude of society towards parties is also, to put it mildly, unsatisfactory.

In itself, the decision of these new parties to change the existing apolitical environment and start political activity is positive. If it is possible to convey some positive impulses to political life, this should be welcomed.

As for the approach of the authorities, here the authorities purposefully provided ample opportunities for the growth of the number of parties. In order to imitate a “multiparty” system, it is tolerant of certain initiatives. At the same time, the new political course of power in relation to parties, then this is a stage of preparation for various political steps.

Question: By the way, the other day the chairman of the ADR Party Gubad Ibadoglu made a proposal to unite the opposition. He said that his first message to the political parties, which, like the ADR party, take a truly oppositional position, is to preserve their independence and achieve unity, and his desire is to get the support of society in creating an opposition union. Do you think the unity of the opposition is possible?

Answer: Gubad Ibadoglu’s initiative is dictated by good intentions. He expressed such an idea to change the apolitical conditions in the country. But to achieve this goal, he did not offer specific options. In fact, the complexity of the question lies in the proposed formats. Especially in answers to questions - who is the real "opposition", how to classify them, in what format the "unification" will be effective. In theory, of course, "unification" is possible, but in practice there are some problems.

In addition, is the "unity of the opposition" important for society, is there a social order for this? Who needs this “union” and why? Will this have a positive impact on the growth of political activity in society? When did calls for unity appear on the agenda and what are the overall results? Is the process of split, division, clarification of relations between opposition political structures completed? These questions should be answered appropriately with objective analysis.

Citizens have no idea what joining the party will give them. They do not believe that they will solve their problems in this way. They are watching from the sidelines. The persons who, despite all the difficulties, joined the party, also did not demonstrate effective political activity. The formats of "unity" that exist so far have not remained in memory as stable and successful. The roots of all contradictions and disagreements within the opposition lie precisely in the plane of this "unity". So the expression "unity", no matter how positive it may have, is followed by a negative past.

It would be nice if the discussions around "unity" were held behind closed doors.

Sometimes open discussions lead not to rapprochement, not to reconciliation, but to distance. After all, each party has leaders and leaders who are unconditionally accepted by its members. First of all, it is they who must discuss this issue among themselves and make a decision.

Question: Two more parties have been registered in recent days. Party of Law and Justice, which is led by former political prisoner and ex-Minister of Health Ali Insanov and the Renaissance party. How do you assess this step? There was a question that worries everyone. How could it happen that Ali Insanov's party was registered? What do you think is the rationale behind this?

Answer: I noted that in the current political situation, the authorities seem to be interested in the multiplicity of opposition parties. Artificial barriers that prevent citizens from exercising this right have been removed. Parties that have functioned for years but have not been officially registered are quickly registered within 2-3 years. Even newly formed parties are easily registered. This is a very positive case in terms of securing the right to association. But behind this lies other political intentions.

After the 44-day war, the authorities do not feel much pressure from the side of society. The authorities have partially relaxed and do not avoid direct contacts with society, as they used to. In particular, the strength of the opposition parties is not so great that it worries the authorities. The right to assemble freely was effectively prohibited. Restoring this right through local empowerment does not seem feasible, and the international community has pushed the issue of democracy into the background.

The authorities see no danger for themselves in Ali Insanov's party and the electorate united around him. On the contrary, the official registration of parties gives the impression that the country is preparing for political reforms.

Question: There are forecasts that a referendum will take place in the near future, amendments will be made to the Constitution, and a proportional electoral system will be restored. The creation of new parties and their registration is the method by which the authorities try to succeed by splitting the votes of these parties in proportional elections. I am interested in your opinion about this forecast and what has been said on this matter.

Answer: Analysis shows that these predictions have a foundation. The preparation of the authorities for some kind of political campaign is no exception. I would even say that such a political process is inevitable.

The victory in the 44-day war, the environment created by the new geopolitical competition and cooperation, traditional and non-traditional threats to the country are actualizing changes in the country's political life. In particular, by enhancing the role of political parties, the way can be opened for their participation in political life. This will ensure greater resistance to external influences. At the same time, a new stage in the relationship between the state and citizens will begin. Changes in this direction are also in the private interests of the authorities.

Kamran Mahmudov