The first signs of the hybrid war that has begun against Azerbaijan

The interview of the political commentator, security expert Arastun Orujlu with ASTNA in July last year became a sensation and caused heated discussions in the media and social networks. In the same interview, Arastun Orujlu said that subversive groups are being prepared against Azerbaijan in Russia and these groups are being trained in Iran. The political observer noted that Azerbaijan is the target. According to the expert, the purpose of sabotage groups is to destabilize the situation in the country.

Considering in retrospect the recent events in Azerbaijan, recalls the considerations expressed in this interview 9 months ago by Arastun Orujlu. Have many countries already launched a mechanism to destabilize Azerbaijan?

We have again turned to Arastun Orujlu with this question.

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Question: Does Russia have anything to do with such events as the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, the assassination attempt on MP Fazil Mustafa, which   caused the aggravation of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations?

 Answer: At first glance, there is no direct connection, but we must not forget that it is necessary to look at what is happening in Azerbaijan and around it from a broader perspective, or rather, through the prism of geopolitical processes. And this is natural because Azerbaijan today is the place where global interests collide or intersect. The warring parties representing these interests use all available means in this struggle. In this sense, the most active in the region is the Russian-Iranian tandem,  and their plans are known. Russia and Iran are making efforts to implement the North-South transport and communication corridor, which should pass through Azerbaijan, and as the intensity of these efforts increases, the pressure on Azerbaijan also increases. In this sense, it is also difficult to say that the pressure exerted on Azerbaijan is not bilaterally coordinated. The fact that this will happen has been known for a long time. Realizing the impossibility of the fact that projected on both Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus region as a whole, is an amateur activity, and considering the above, we can say that Iran's steps taken against Azerbaijan are coordinated with Russia.

Question: If you remember,  in your interview in July last year you made sensational statements. You said that in neighboring countries, especially in Russia, sabotage groups are being created against Azerbaijan and these groups are undergoing special training in Iran. Is it possible that we are already on the threshold of this? Has the mechanism of destabilization of Azerbaijan been launched in these countries?

Answer: Of course, I remember these statements well. They were based on accurate data obtained from serious sources. In addition, unfortunately, we have to admit that this process is still going on today. More precisely, we are approaching this period, because attempts at large-scale destabilization is still ahead, and the current ones are, as they say, "flowers". In fact, any destabilization begins in much the same way: at first, they occur as separate events that at first glance are not related to each other in any way, but by linking them in different aspects, it can be understood that the goal is to "prepare" society for larger-scale events in a sense. In my opinion, we have now entered this "preparatory" stage, so we cannot allow miscalculations and mistakes.

Question: Quote from this interview: "Any events can happen in Azerbaijan. Both destabilization in the country and the commission of any destructive actions for this purpose are possible (ranging from the murders of some politicians, journalists, well-known public and political figures to processes that begin with social demands, which later develop into riots). Activation on the Karabakh front is possible. There may be some kind of conflict on the Azerbaijani-Russian border. That is, the spectrum here is quite wide. It is very difficult to say exactly what will happen. I have voiced several options that I consider possible. But there may be other, even more diverse events. This can be done not only by Russia, but also by Iran. This may happen at the initiative and instigation of the very provocative 5th column inside Azerbaijan." Attempts on well-known public and political figures. We have already witnessed this. What else can happen?

Answer: In fact, some of the possible events that I was talking about then are already happening, and, as I said, in order to calculate and find out what else is in the arsenal, it is necessary to conduct deep intelligence activities and conduct analytical research. Apparently, there are already signs of much of what was listed then. For example, provocations in the country and the artificial aggravation of the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh. But what appears today is also a sign of hybrid activity. In other words, on the one hand, Iran is creating tension, on the other hand, the Russian 5th column is trying to increase this tension, and on the third hand, Russia itself is creating conditions for provocations of separatists in the Nagorno-Karabakh. As a result, we actually see the first signs of attempts to start a hybrid war against Azerbaijan. We should not forget that in the arsenal of those who are trying to realize their geopolitical interests through Azerbaijan, there is also an asymmetric method of war, in particular, we are witnessing its conduct by the "proxy". We should not lose sight of the possibility that this threat may come not only from one side, but also from the north and from the south. All this may also seem like a figment of the imagination, but in any case, serious preventive measures must be taken.

Question: What exactly does Iran want from Azerbaijan? What worries Iran?

Answer: Iran wants a lot from Azerbaijan, but at the moment its main goal is to open the North-South corridor I mentioned. But the problem is that even if this corridor opens, it is doubtful that it will work. Let me remind you that Russia considers the North-South corridor as an alternative to the East-West corridor, as well as as a way to block the latter. In other words, the North-South corridor should start in India, pass through the Arabian Sea, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia and reach the Baltic Sea to ensure trade relations between the countries of the Indochina Peninsula and Europe. But the question is, how possible is it that two countries (Russia and Iran), which are heavily sanctioned, open the way to Europe and provide transportation? And one more question, will China agree to transport through India? Naturally, in both cases the answer is negative, and, consequently, the prospect of this corridor itself also seems vague. This, in turn, encourages Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to show interest in the East-West corridor, mainly the middle corridor, which is part of it. And this does not meet the interests of either Iran or Russia. Both Iran and Russia are already carrying out concrete work in this direction. For example, Russia has already deepened the Volga-Don Canal by 2 m, and work is underway in Iran to expand railways and other transport infrastructure. And Azerbaijan stands in the way of all these works, which has an ambiguous attitude to participation in this project. This is the reason for what is happening in and around our country.

Question: Can this tension lead to war?

Answer: Theoretically, any development of events is possible, but in practice, Iran can resort to this only in one case: if Russia is determined, under the pretext of “preventing Iranian aggression,” to introduce military force into the South Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan, and protect Iran. But as far as this is possible, it raises serious questions in itself. Firstly, in this case it would be impossible not to take into account the resistance of Azerbaijan itself and what steps its ally Turkey can take. On the other hand, Tehran will have to take into account the possible reaction of numerous states that are in difficult relations with it and expect Iran to make some kind of “mistake". Here, the existing risks for Iran are several times higher than the possible threats for Azerbaijan. Therefore, launching a military campaign against Azerbaijan, whatever its scale, would be tantamount to suicide for Tehran.

Question: What steps should Azerbaijan take to combat this policy of Iran and Russia, both within its borders and abroad? However, recently, operations called "spy hunting" have been carried out against the 5th column of Iran. But this operation is more directed against believers. And other charges have been brought against many of them. What steps should be taken so that an innocent citizen does not suffer from this process?

Answer: First of all, Azerbaijan should hold intensive consultations with its allies and potential partners, prepare for any extreme conditions. In addition, it is necessary to establish constant contact with international institutions in order to inform them of all possible dangers. Serious steps should be taken to strengthen the borders in order to prevent the penetration of various "proxy" groups from abroad. The 5th columns located in the country should be taken under serious control and neutralized as far as possible. In this regard, the "witch hunt" that is being conducted against believers is largely perceived as an operation of intimidation. Targeted propaganda in the media environment, especially in relation to detainees, and ignoring the principle of presumption of innocence.

It's no secret that there is an extensive network of Iranian spies in Azerbaijan, but the steps taken today to neutralize them may cause the opposite effect. Because such steps are effective only if those who are really engaged in espionage are exposed. And for this, there must be specific acts, facts, and hard evidence. However, the steps taken now are more like an attempt to sow fear among believers. Such steps, in turn, further undermine the believers' trust in the state, they begin to view the state as a source of threat and, thus, easily fall under the influence of external forces interested in destabilizing Azerbaijan. However, a country faced with the listed risks and threats needs the exact opposite: trust in the relationship between the state and citizens, internal unity and mobilization against external threats.