The expert on the Caucasus International Peace Foundation Carnegie Thomas de Waal believes that the cooling of the relations of official Baku with the West is detrimental to the country's independence.
In an interview with the Voice of America he commented on recent attacks on civil society in Azerbaijan and the anti-Western course of Baku, the Karabakh conflict and the geopolitical interests in the region.
Question: In the last article you said that Azerbaijan has no plans to integrate with the West. Why do you think so?
Answer: Let's agree that Azerbaijan is not a western country. It is a country that lies between the West and the East, where there is a historical influence of Turkey, Iran and Russia.
Azerbaijan is not a Western country, and there is nothing wrong with that. The problem is that some lobbyists in Washington want to form the impression that Azerbaijan has an allegedly pro-Western government.
Against the background of what is happening in the Ukraine, it was possible to believe that Azerbaijan will be closer to the West, but it is surprising that Baku does the opposite.
Yes, Azerbaijan has close relationship with the Pentagon and the Western oil companies. At the same time, Baku has good relations with Russia.
The authorities stepped up pressure on civil society, Western NGOs - IREX, NDI and others.
Pro-Western activists have been arrested - Leyla and Arif Yunus, Rasul Jafarov, Intigam Aliyev, Ilgar Mamedov, Anar Mammadli and Rauf Mirkadyrov.
Q: Former Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Kozlarich and the Director of Freedom House David Kramer called for sanctions against the government of Azerbaijan. What do you think about this?
Answer: This is a rather tough position, and it is stated by people who have quite a considerable weight in foreign policy of the United States.
Working in the government, Kramer was one of those who actively participated in the implementation of sanctions against Belarus. It should be noted that now the human rights situation in Azerbaijan is much worse than in Belarus, and it may be a manifestation of double standards.
I believe that it is important to maintain dialogue with President Aliyev and the Azerbaijani government. They need to make it clear that this is not about regime change.
My concern is that even such statements of people friendly to Azerbaijan as Ambassador Richard Morningstar have not been correctly interpreted.
Official Baku instead to hear these appeals, arrested more people. At some point the administration must consider what measures can be taken. These may include sanctions. In my opinion, we have not come to this point.
Q: What are the main sources of threats to the stability of Azerbaijan - external, internal, or both?
Answer: I see basically two risks for Azerbaijan. I do not think that the external risks are high. Russia and Iran are a problem. But none of them is going to carry out a direct invasion in Azerbaijan. None of them wants a regime change. They have good relations with President Ilham Aliyev.
There are two risks. The first is access to the political scene of religious radicals and marginalization of the opposition. Vacant place will be occupied by jihadists, who are now fighting in Syria and Iraq in the units of LIH. One day they will return home.
The second threat is inflammation of the Karabakh war. At the contact line, we see periodic skirmishes. Provocations occur on both sides. Due to the use of heavy weapons, even a limited war can cause mass casualties.
Q: What advice would you give to the Government of Azerbaijan?
Answer: They should listen carefully to the statements from Washington.
There they are not interested in regime change in Baku, although they want to see Azerbaijan as an open and democratic state.
Iran and Russia are great neighbors. However, if Azerbaijan wants more independence, you should make peace also with a small neighbor.
Achieving peace through mutual compromise would make Azerbaijan an important strategic corridor between the West and the East.
Of course, to reach a compromise is not easy. But lands will be returned, the refugees will return home. Such an outcome would strengthen Azerbaijan.
Q: What do you mean by compromise?
Answer: The suggestions are on the table. Azerbaijan will get back 7 regions around Nagorno-Karabakh except for a narrow Lachin corridor.
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are granted the right to self-government. The final status of the region remains uncertain for a long period and 20-30 years later a referendum will be held. During this period, Azerbaijan and Armenia will establish relationships. Azerbaijan is economically ahead of Armenia.
Azerbaijan can use “soft power” against Armenia. People will return to their homes. The security situation will improve. Life will improve.
Azerbaijan will not get all what it wants - for example the Azerbaijani flag may not be raised over Khankendi. But everything else will be achieved. -06B-
Question-answer
-
State Department's Liam Wasley, Director of the Office of European Security and Political Affairs at the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, speaks to TURAN's Washington correspondent Alex Raufoglu on NATO's comprehensive defense and deterrence plan for Ukraine, forthcoming announcements of a package of support, as well as the country's progress towards membership and other challenges.
-
Sadettin Tantan, one of Turkey's most experienced statesmen and politicians, answers the questions from the Turan News Agency.
-
Yılmaz Akıncı, an employee of the Türkiye office of the Al-Jazeera channel, answered the questions of Turan News Agency after the publication of his memoirs entitled "An Angel on My Tail"
-
Authoritative expert Sabit Bagirov, who heads the Foundation for the Promotion of Entrepreneurship and Market Economy, in an exclusive interview with Turan sheds light on the country's upcoming role as the organizer of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29).
Leave a review