Uzbekistan can be the next: scores for and against

The CSTO military operation in Kazakhstan may repeat itself in Uzbekistan, Russian experts say. Against the background of events in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan may return to the Collective Security Treaty Organization,  Leonid Kalashnikov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots, told Interfax. He added that Tashkent should  understand: there is no one else to rely on.

At the online summit of the CSTO, President of Belarus A. Lukashenko continued this topic, saying that Uzbekistan must "learn lessons." The Uzbek political scientist Farhod Tolipov regarded this statement as a direct threat to Uzbekistan. “He speaks as if he knows something. And since we don't see anything, he tells us. This is humiliation of Uzbekistan’s dignity on the part of the President of Belarus,” Tolipov reacted.

Expert Farhad Mammadov believes that after the CSTO summit and the statements made there, army construction in Uzbekistan will have to proceed at a rapid pace. "I hope that the supply of Turkish arms will increase. The office of the Turkish military attaché in Tashkent may even be expanded, and military educational programs will be expanded. It is possible that within the OTG they will start thinking about creating mechanisms for interaction between the military and special services.

Azerbaijan has come a long way in this regard and the 44-day Patriotic War has shown that the results are obvious. The purchase of new weapons and an increase in the military budget after the war is a necessity in order not to become the object of an offer that cannot be refused," Mammadov said.

Political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu reports that the President of Uzbekistan Shavket Mirziyoyev is strengthening the police and army, taking control of the activities of local officials. "There are many Kazakhstani problems in Uzbekistan. Nothing can be ruled out. No one a month ago could predict an uprising in Kazakhstan and the introduction of foreign troops there," Shahinoglu said.

Rafael Sattarov, an international political scientist from Uzbekistan, said in an interview for Turan that, according to his observations, the Uzbek leadership decided to take a break and consider further steps in the Eurasian space.

“If before the events in Kazakhstan, in principle, there was no doubt that the direction towards the EAEU had begun, now the Uzbek leadership is already trying to understand its next steps, uncertainty, caution and suspicion have grown.

Now the process of searching for an answer has begun:

a) how to act if Moscow increases pressure on Tashkent;

b) what the world community, foreign partners can offer, or what the Uzbek leadership can rely on.

Here are the first steps of Tashkent. What conclusions will be drawn and what understanding the figures on Mustaqillik Square will come to will soon become known when President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will hold a meeting and address Uzbek diplomats, and after the development of a new concept of foreign policy."

- Could the events in the neighboring country be repeated in Uzbekistan?

- Similar events can certainly arise, since the problems are the same, but on a larger scale. But there is Turkmenistan nearby, which for six years has not been able to get out of the food crisis, where the population is crushed, and the country's economy is not only neo-feudal, but generally feudal with a medieval flavor. Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, like Kazakhstan in their time, tried to arrange a transit of power to a family member, and this is a big risk. First, the quality of the "heirs" is poor, their entertainment lasts exactly as long as the rule of the fathers.

The scale of environmental, demographic, food problems is so huge that, given the greater amount of mediocre bureaucracy, protest moods among the population can critically grow in any country.

- Do you expect the strengthening of the security structures of Uzbekistan?

- Tashkent has sufficient defense capability, and an increase in the country's defense capability in the realities of Uzbekistan means only strengthening the security forces of the State Security Service and the National Guard. Since 2015, the military have begun to modernize the armed forces, this process is going smoothly, smoothly, quietly and peacefully, I do not think that they are in dire need of an excessive increase in resources. The state should spend its main funds on the solution of socio-economic and infrastructure projects, education, fight against corruption, nepotism, nepotism and send the neo-feudal model of the economy to the dustbin of history.

- You spoke about the customs of the Uzbek leadership. And what do the people of Uzbekistan think about what is happening. Are there many who want to restore the USSR?

- There are no sociological studies to accurately assess the attitude of the people. All expert opinions are guided by social media sentiment. The people, as always, do not have a definite point of view.

As far as I can see, some see a positive side in Kazakhstani events, others talk about the return of the times of the Russians - the Turkestan governor Mikhail Chernyaev and the conqueror of Central Asia Konstantin von Kaufman.

I don’t think that most Uzbeks live with dreams of the USSR. Today it is fashionable to build an Arab caliphate or a Taliban chicken coop.

Kamal Ali