Has Power Cast a Shadow on Government-Opposition Dialogue?

After the extraordinary parliamentary elections held on September 1 this year in Azerbaijan, new nuances may emerge in the country's politics. This week, Ilqar Mammadov, the chairman of the Republican Alternative (ReAL) Party, resigned from his party leadership. "For 10 years, I have personally not been allowed to participate in any election... I recall saying last year in my status: if I cannot bring success to my party in the next two elections, I will step down from the leadership," he emphasized last year.

On September 1, I. Mammadov was a candidate from constituency No. 22, Nəsimi-Yasamal. He reported fraud in that constituency and demanded the annulment of the results. However, the Central Election Commission (CEC) stated that there were only irregularities in three polling stations within that constituency and annulled the results in those specific stations. It is reported that the overall result in the constituency remained unchanged. According to the CEC's initial statement, Asim Mollazade, the leader of the Azerbaijan Democratic Reforms Party, is considered the leading candidate from that constituency. Following the CEC's decision regarding his complaint, I. Mammadov announced his decision to resign.

In 2020, the Presidential Administration announced that a new configuration of the political system and a dialogue environment were forming in the country. It turned out that since this year, with the exception of the Musavat party and the Popular Front Party (PFPA), a dialogue with other political parties has begun. Those not participating in the process stated that they did not want to be involved in a scenario that lacked reality.

According to the CEC's preliminary results, the parliament will again primarily reflect the representation of the previous parties. This means that several parties participating in the dialogue will remain outside the parliament. Moving forward, in what format will the "government-opposition" dialogue continue?

Incidentally, shortly after the elections, one of the candidates—Panah Huseyn, chairman of the People's Party (PPA)—mentioned irregularities on Azadliq Radio's broadcast and indicated that his own resignation might also be discussed. Since this statement was interpreted differently by some local media, he later clarified his stance: "...Recognizing the threat of effectively abolishing the real electoral institution, and as an expression of the failure of the political course known as the 'government-opposition dialogue,' which includes the party I lead, and accepting my share of responsibility for this situation, I have stated that I intend to resign from the party leadership of the PPA Board of Directors... until a collective discussion is held and appropriate decisions are made, I remain the chairman of the PPA, and the PPA continues to function as a political party."

Elman Nasirov, a deputy of the National Assembly of the VI convocation from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP), told Turan that currently, there is a dialogue between parties and political forces in Azerbaijan: “This is a political culture, and as evidence of this, if we look at the VI convocation of the parliament, we will see that opposition parties are represented in committee chairmanships and at the vice-speaker level in the parliamentary leadership. This is a result of political dialogue.”

According to E. Nasirov, the Azerbaijani authorities are interested in forming a government-opposition political dialogue and are committed to this format: “The election process itself has shown that this political dialogue is bearing fruit. Out of the 26 political parties registered in our country, 25 participated in these elections. Those with a stronger social base will be represented in the VII convocation of the parliament.”

Regarding the resignation of some political party leaders after the elections, the deputy noted that it is their own political decision: “Elections are a unique event to gauge the strength and influence of a party. It seems that these party leaders have concluded that if their parties could not win the elections, their politics was incomplete, and they could not gather the necessary social base. In such a situation, they likely consider making changes in the party leadership as the most reasonable option.”

E. Nasirov emphasized that since 1993, the New Azerbaijan Party has won all presidential, parliamentary, and municipal elections: “Our party is a nationwide party created by the Great Leader. We have no doubt that the New Azerbaijan Party will win the next elections as well. Political parties that do not succeed in elections should ask themselves, ‘What are we doing wrong?’ If they find the right answer to this question, they will have a chance to develop their parties. The Azerbaijani government is strong, and it is interesting that rival parties capable of competing in Azerbaijani society are being formed.”

Tural Abbasli, chairman of the AG Party, told Turan that when the government-opposition dialogue began, a mistaken impression was created in society that if there was a dialogue, it was a commodity for negotiation: “That is, there was no agreement or expectation like ‘we sat at a table with you, and you should let us into the parliament.’ We did not think that demonstrating the political culture to sit at a table with the authorities would suddenly fix everything in Azerbaijan.”

According to T. Abbasli, this is considered the first stage: “Until yesterday, government-opposition meetings in Azerbaijan were organized by the OSCE, but today, at least the opposition and the government can communicate directly with each other.”

The party chairman noted that since his party is not in dialogue under any circumstances, they did not have any illusions about being represented in the parliament: “We conducted our own campaign and gathered a certain number of votes. In our opinion, if there had been no violations on election day, enough candidates from our party would have been represented in the parliament.”

He does not believe that the dialogue should stop after the election results are announced: “The process is proceeding in stages, and I hope there will be more positive outcomes. Expecting the government to democratize overnight just because it is engaging in dialogue is wishful thinking.”

Political commentator Nesimi Mammadli told Azadliq Radio that the dialogue process itself served the government's corporate interests: "Experience has shown that neither political parties have been able to gain from it, nor has this process played a positive role in the democratization of society. There were initial thoughts that this would lead to the development of democracy and a multiparty system in the country. However, the opposite effect occurred."

N. Mammadli believes that some parties participated in the elections sincerely believing that dialogue with the authorities could bring about change: “If a leader commits to resigning if their political organization does not succeed in elections before the public, it is commendable for them to adhere to that commitment. However, it should be considered that resignations are an approach inherent to a democratic society. The parties that participated in the elections in Azerbaijan were not defeated by the will of the voters. In such cases, I do not believe that bearing the cost themselves and resigning will lead their parties to success.”

In an initial report released the day after the extraordinary parliamentary elections held on September 1 this year, the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights also emphasized that the existing conditions did not allow the elections to be conducted in accordance with democratic standards.

However, the CEC believes that the elections were conducted at a high level.