The Karabakh conflict has been settled, now is the turn of democracy

I looked through three popular Azerbaijani sites, as if specially created for the scourging Armenia and Armenians. Before the war 2020 and during the hostilities, such editorial policy was understandable, coinciding with the patriotic requests of Azerbaijanis. And what after November 9? The theme and especially the rhetoric of the authors have changed notably. Now there are no offensive expressions against Armenians, and in the article of the author, who did not go beyond the anti-Armenian topic, Pashinyan was justified in his political dispute with Sargsyan's son-in-law and other competitors. I am not going to assert that Baku instructed the websites to end the war with Armenia; maybe the authors themselves felt the dictates of the moment. The version of the indication above, however, remains possible.

One of the three sites published an editorial article in which Pashinyan was mentioned, but in a completely different context. The point of the publication is that, together with Pashinyan, President I. Aliyev is unjustly attacked by the chair of the Azerbaijani opposition Popular Front Party, Ali Karimli. An old journalistic trick: by equating the obvious enemy of the people (Pashinyan) with the enemy of the current government, the editorial office is trying to spread popular hatred of the head of a hostile state to the political opponent of the president in his country.

Azerbaijan must neutralize revanchists in Armenia, and this is understandable. What is the post-war task of the Azerbaijani leadership in relation to the political opposition within our country? Earlier, before the Victory, the pressure against the opposition was officially explained by the need to unite the people around the president to win the war. Accusations of Aliyev's anti-democracy were countered by counter-accusations of Baku in the double standards of Europe and America, ignoring the rights of a million Azerbaijani refugees. Now these arguments have become irrelevant. Consequently, it is time to open the doors closed to democracy: for the benefit of the Azerbaijani people and state, that the accusations of the democratic world against the central government in Azerbaijan stop.

The article that equates A. Kerimov with N. Pashinyan hints at the continuation of the previous policy of the authorities towards the opposition. What if this site did not hit the editorial brakes, so to say, stuck in the past, although the central government did away with hostility towards the Azerbaijani democrats? It is possible, and there are reasons for this. The Azerbaijani law enforcement machine slows down the repressive wave against the opposition; political prisoners are released by court decisions. A representative of the Presidential Administration holds meetings with leaders of various and opposition parties. Opposition politicians were invited to the TV channels. After the war, the President expressed gratitude to the opposition parties for their solidarity in the name of military victory. The latest speeches of I. Aliyev do not accuse the Popular Front and Musavat parties of betrayal the Motherland, traditional for the past years.

The central executive branch should make a choice. It is possible, by exploiting the undoubted popular popularity of the victorious president, to continue persecuting the democratic opposition, and even to destroy it; but then the confrontation of the Azerbaijani authorities with a part of society and the democratic world will continue, and the consequences of such hostility will certainly affect the economy and welfare of Azerbaijanis. We will not give figures; the justification for this provision is in numerous publications of our economists. The second way: democratization, lifting the shackles imposed in 2014 on civil society, political opposition, independent press, stopping the use of law enforcement agencies to persecute dissidents. However, for success in this direction, the authorities must apply political will, adherence to principles, efforts. Democratization is hard daily work. Many people in the elite and among the people in Azerbaijan are convinced of the incompatibility of the Western model of democracy, with the mentality of the people, and the prevailing realities in the country. We will also have to discuss with them, for that and democracy.

There is one weightier factor: the war with Armenia continues on the political plane, the President spoke about this. In this war, closeness with Putin's Russia, which has taken control of Karabakh, is important for the authorities. Having gone into democracy, into closeness with the West, we risk spoiling relations with Russia, which is extremely undesirable for Azerbaijan.

What path did our government take after the divarication? Is it possible to combine two different paths, to build a third road? It is not clear; there is no clear statement from the president. We have only guesses based on fragmentary facts.