Administration of Aliyev between past and future

The long-awaited program document "The main directions of the strategic road map for the national economy and the main sectors of the economy" approved by the President Ilham Aliyev on December was ignored, both the propaganda machine mode and the West.

Neither the European Union nor the United States, who were involved in the developing the roadmap initiative, paid no attention to this, at first glance, a significant strategic document. A cursory analysis of the document (there was nothing to study) placed on the website of the state news agency, states that it is the spirit and content differs significantly from project goals and objectives.

Certain studies have identified that the well-known consulting firm McKinsey recommended by Washington and attracted by official Baku left the project at the final stage of development, when faced the opposition to reforms by the influential part of the apparatus of the Administration of President Aliyev.

The idea of reform was completely emasculated, leaving no choice to American developers. The map submitted to public could not disclose for the citizens the vision of tactical decisions as how to take the country out of a deep crisis and derogatory. A review written on 100 pages can be characterizes as the document telling mostly about the glorious past and the petrodollars, and not entirely clear, but hazy prosperous future. At present only the maintaining stability - monetary, fiscal, and other; and nothing about the development.

The document suggests the conclusion that Aliyev's team lives in the past, and sometimes in the future, distancing itself from unpleasant weekdays of the country"s crisis. This is wrong position - escape from problems. The flowery verses of Omar Khayyam repeatedly in different presentation presents a very wise semantic message which in brief is as follows: 1. remember the past, but do not live in the past, 2. Think about the future, but do not live in the future, 3. Live now. There is more rigid definition: there is no past, and the future may not come.

So the road map by the regime has no dynamics of the present, except for stagnation, which has filled the essence of the content. The main measures aimed at providing freedom to the business community, its legal protection against arbitrariness of executive power, are not reflected in the document. It makes the document senseless and incapable. This means that the power is not going to hold real and operational reforms in Azerbaijan.

Map once again confirms the conclusions that Aliyev"s team sees a threat in formation of the middle class free from the power, the small businessmen, which could lead to failure of the control of the whole of society, a considerable part of which consists of the entrepreneurs dependent on the government. Provision of economic freedom, will inevitably put on the agenda the need for political freedom and freedom of choice, in which the current elite cannot find a place in the Olympus of power. This is the main motivation for a team that does not want to compromise with society, even in the face of a dangerous crisis for the country.

Psychologically, the current regime can be understood - 23-year management of the country has created the conviction on the eternal thousand-year Reich, its inviolability. The formed oligarchic system of the mixture of political power and financial capital cannot accept its defeat, which is clearly proved by not just economic, but a systemic crisis facing the state.

In fact, the actions of the administration resemble the actions of the scared command on the sinking ship, inexorably moving towards stone reefs. It seems that the time to catch the wind of changes has been lost not because the situation will not change and will not change for the better, but in terms that the process will no longer be controlled by the old-fashioned presidential team.

From the history of the issue:

On March 16, 2016 President Ilham Aliyev ordered to approve "The main directions of the strategic road map for the national economy and the main sectors of the economy." It was motivated by the need to analyze the current state of the economy and prepare new economic development strategy to ensure the sustainability of economic policy and reforms. The working group, headed by the newly made assistant to the president and the former taxman number 2 Natig Amirov has been established.

The Working Group was charged to prepare with six months a draft of economic development strategy and action plan for 2016-2020, long-term review of the project for the period up to 2025, as well as targeted survey project for the period after 2025. To develop the program was attracted American McKinsey & Company - an international consulting company specializing in solving the problems.

A large "road map" like a matryoshka includes 11 strategic "road maps" for the development of industries. The Administration believes that the implementation of the card will strengthen the economic position of Azerbaijan in the world, and will be among the countries with high income.

The implementation is estimated at 27 billion manats (about $ 18 billion,) the investment, which accounts for a substantial part on external borrowing.