CIS Destroyer: Misha

As an anecdote it was said that when M. Saakashvili, Z. Zhvania and N. Burdzhanadze came to power, only a miserable 17 lari were found in the treasury of the country completely ruined by the elections. "Misha" himself said that his first salary for the president was only $ 40. During the first year, tax revenues increased by more than 60%, and the state budget increased by 300% in 3 years. According to the results of the first year of his presidency (2004), Saakashvili will say that during Shevardnadze’s rule, up to 90% of state property was sold, but the country received practically nothing from this, and in one year it is planned to receive up to $ 200 million from the privatization of the remaining 10%. Indeed, in the last 5 years of Shevardnadze's rule (from 1999 to 2003) less than $ 62 million was received from the sale of state property, and in the next 5 years (from 2004 to 2008) - $ 1.44 billion. politicians, but businessmen: “The Rose Revolution allowed ambitious Georgians scattered all over the world to first believe and then make sure that their knowledge and skills will be in demand at home. As a result, the new management structure was formed mainly of people who had never before sought to come to power. Many came to politics from business, and, as a rule, from another country, so everyone looked at the reforms not from the side of the bureaucracy, but through the eyes of business and even a foreigner ”- Larisa Burakova. Why did Georgia succeed?

Georgia suffered from a stagnant economy, widespread police and government corruption to such an extent that bribery flourished in any commercial deal, the country had a high crime rate, and its infrastructure deteriorated. A large-scale reform program began with the mass dismissal of politicians, officials and police officers (the traffic police were abolished altogether for two months), suspected of corruption. Newly recruited into the civil service and all state employees have significantly increased their salaries, protecting them from the temptations of bribes. Many oligarchs, on pain of arrest, agreed to pay huge fines to the state budget in exchange for freedom. The economy was reformed through the reduction of bureaucratic delays that complicated doing business, attracting foreign investment, and simplifying the tax code. In 2009, Saakashvili introduced the Law on Economic Freedom of Georgia (adopted in 2011), limiting state intervention in the economy and aimed at reducing government spending (30%) and debt (60%). The law prohibited the government from changing taxes without holding a popular referendum on rates and structure. As a result of the reforms ("bendunomics"), which was the father of Kakha Bendukidze ("Bulldozer"), the Georgian economy grew by 70% (from 2003 to 2013), and per capita income approximately tripled. In five years, more than seventy reforms have been initiated, no other country, except Georgia, in the last fifty years has been able to carry out such deep and such rapid reforms in various fields. Something similar, according to USAID estimates, happened in Singapore in the 1960s, South Korea in the 1970s, Ireland in the 1980s, Estonia in the 1990s, and Slovakia in 1998–2002. In parallel with de-bureaucratization and the fight against corruption, there was a process of liberalization of domestic policy and general legislation. In a matter of minutes, it became possible to obtain a visa when entering the country (for residents of more than sixty countries, it was not required at all), to make a passport required for traveling abroad, or an internal identity card, to draw up a deal to buy a car, register as an individual entrepreneur, get a certificate of ownership ... It was a stunning victory for everyday corruption!

At the same time, there were growing problems associated with the costs of rapid reform. Poverty in the country only slightly decreased; at the end of 2012, about a quarter of the population lived in poverty, and unemployment was 15%. Human rights activist Nana Kakabadze testified: during the reign of Saakashvili, Georgia was in first place in terms of the number of prisoners in the world, before him there were 5,700 prisoners, a year later there were 12 thousand of them, and during the entire reign from 25 to 30 thousand. Torture was practiced in prisons and "Inhuman treatment" of prisoners. There were cases when the police in the street shot "innocent people", mostly "young guys". Most of the independent NGOs were taken under control, “people were bribed”, unofficial foundations were created to which people forcibly transferred their funds: during the presidency of “Misha” state racketeering flourished, and only 3-4 people controlled everything ”. It turns out that, having defeated grassroots (everyday) corruption, the new government has intensified elite corruption. Russian analysts note that during the transformation of Georgia, large tranches of financial aid were sent from the EU and the US. This was an exclusive case in the post-Soviet space, so other countries should not repeat this experience, especially in a pandemic. Of course, for justice it is necessary to analyze not the quantitative, but the qualitative composition of the arrested, find out how many corrupt officials and other groups were among them. Be that as it may, already at the borders of the country, those entering were faced with posters: “Georgia is a country free from corruption. Welcome to Georgia! “Keep in mind, according to Georgian legislation, giving a bribe is punishable by up to 7 years in prison.”

However, back to Georgia today. Saakashvili considers his detention illegal, and the accusations against him are falsified, supporters of "Misha" staged a large-scale rally in the center of Tbilisi. But why Saakashvili returned right now, and not for the parliamentary elections or the first municipal elections, when the question of the future power of Georgia was being decided? If Georgian Dream did not gain the 43% agreed with the EU in the elections to the local self-government bodies, the country would face new parliamentary elections. Some believe that this was demanded by the opposition, accusing Saakashvili of indecision and considering it important to come before the next “decisive elections” in the municipalities. Others believe that an elementary trap was set for the ex-president, designed to permanently remove the "Saakashvili factor" from the political space of Georgia. Still others, on the contrary, argue that the last thing the authorities needed was a “visit,” which certainly inflamed the pre-election atmosphere. Indeed, even in prison, Saakashvili remains hardly the main figure in the struggle unfolding in the country: the former president expects his supporters to participate in the second round of local elections, he called for support of members of the United National Movement party he founded. Feeling the excesses, he called for reconciliation, stating that he himself intends to act the same after being released from prison: “Another revenge and revenge will morally destroy our society and finally destroy our country. Big changes await us, but for this we must forget all grievances. "

The first round of elections to self-government bodies took place on October 2. The second round will take place on October 30. Elections of mayors are scheduled in five cities and 15 municipalities, 20 cities and regions (out of 64). In the second round, two candidates are fighting: from the government and the opposition.

The ex-president of Georgia has been on hunger strike for almost a month, refusing to be hospitalized in the prison clinic: “Whatever my health condition, I refuse to be transferred to the prison clinic in Gldani and prefer to stay where I am until the situation is resolved or my death, or my freedom."

The ruling party needs to demonstrate that its power is unshakable, and for the National Movement, victory is the hope of returning to its former glory. The results of the first round showed that the ruling party is not particularly satisfied with the country's large cities, including Tbilisi. The ruling party outlined a large-scale demonstration, announced a full mobilization, leaders, including the prime minister, urgently went on a voyage to the cities where the second rounds will take place to meet with party activists and discuss an action plan. The opposition relied on undecided voters, while negotiating with opposition counterparts in order to gain additional votes: it is known that the overall support of the opposition in the country exceeds 53%. Opposition groups are divided into those who support one side or the other. Most of them are supporters of the National Movement, but there are also groups that try to be neutral. Emotions, of course, will play a role. And here - the state of health of M. Saakashvili, if he continues the hunger strike until the day of voting, is fraught with consequences, but his release is the loss of the votes of his supporters, for whom the place of the ex-president is exclusively in prison. So far, nobody is in a hurry to congratulate Georgian Dream, which has overcome the barrier of 43% of votes in the first round, because the question of what will happen after the second round has not yet been removed from the agenda.

The opinion of Georgian political analysts: no one really believes in reconciliation, and the part of society that is dissatisfied with the authorities is still more opposition-minded towards the nationals. Everything can turn into a split of the country and society. The desire of the ruling team to politicize the processes smells of fear of defeat. Misha's fate depends on the outcome of the second round. But, in principle, any victory for the National Movement is only a matter of political dignity. It is about the OMS, not the parliament. As a result of local elections, it is difficult to change the power by constitutional means.

For 30 years now, politics in Georgia has been directly dependent on who will bring more people out into the street, the voter is again divided in two, and we have not been able to break this vicious circle, he sees everything in two colors.

It seems that what has been said applies not only to elections and politics, but also to other areas, including the fight against the pandemic. In Tbilisi, 54% of the adult population was vaccinated with two doses, in Batumi - 60%. For the country as a whole, the indicator is half as much. Nevertheless, the leadership clearly fears of offending potential voters by taking decisive measures. As a result, the rate of vaccination has drastically slowed down. Moreover, the government ruled that there would be no lockdown. Experts note with alarm that not a single wave in Georgia has started so badly as the 5th one. On Tuesday, the number of infected people per day reached 6 thousand. And according to forecasts, this position may persist for 2-3 weeks.

So, the results of the October 30 elections will clarify many issues of the future political fate of Georgia. The political future of M. Saakashvili, who once stirred up the entire post-Soviet space, who became the first destroyer of the CIS, who made Georgia the leader of the democratic process of post-communist states, also depends on their outcome. Will Saakashvili sink into political oblivion, or will he once again lead a country in which there is such an ambiguous attitude towards him?