The revolution from above or ...

The systemic crisis continues to deepen in Azerbaijan, as evidenced by the stagnation in the government, the fall of the national currency, the collapse of the banking system, inflation, reduction of reserves of the Central Bank, the rise in unemployment.

This list could be continued, but perhaps the most important indicator of the expansion of the crisis borders is the growth of protest moods in the Azerbaijani society, and especially in the periphery. Last month there were spontaneous protests of socio-economic nature in the various regions of the country: disgruntled citizens blocked the road Baku-Sumgayit, Baku-Shamakhi, Barda, Saatli, unrest in Goychay and Ganja. In none of these cases the authorities used force to disperse the protesters, which is not typical for an authoritarian regime, it indicates the presence of an explosive mixture in the society, of which the leadership of the country is aware. Some spontaneous actions could escalate into a chain reaction in the case of the use of force, which ultimately, is not able to calm the protests caused by economic reasons.

President Ilham Aliyev delays urgent reforms that he promised at the beginning of 2015. All this time, the government's actions were disproportionate to the crisis, which contributed to the deterioration of society"s situation, resulting in the impoverishment of the masses and the fall in living standards in general.

Team"s actions look like a crisis maneuvers between reality and hope on the increase of oil prices. The latter is regarded as the only "magic wand" from the need for deep and rapid reforms, including the real, not declared diversification of the economy (Crisis has shown, that the government's claims on 50% diversified economy, were fictions.)

Postponement of institutional reforms for the spring of next year testifies to the desire to preserve the regime, taking only half measures. However, international skepticism is more and more observe in the predictions about the upcoming OPEC summit on November 30 from which the regime in Azerbaijan has great expectations in anticipation of the fateful decision to increase the price of black gold.

Even Russia does not believe in the success of the OPEC summit; followed Russia in the winter of 2015 with a slight lag, Azerbaijan began to talk about the anti-crisis measures (creation of structures for the preparation of the presidential reform, a new program of economic diversification, new privatization). Among the Moscow elite is growing skepticism and concern about the increasing threats to stability. Former head of the Ministry of Economic Development, now the head of the Saving Bank German Gref has signaled the approach of the country to a dangerous point of irreversibility of the crisis with all sad consequences.

On 3 October in the TV program "Pozner" on the First Russian Channel Gref said that "all the feelings, all the trends that we see today would not be a repeat of such super raw material cycle. We should be ready for it."

Calling the Russian economy a mono resource, Gref noted that historically the way out of the mono-resource state of the economy has always been very painful: "It is always connected either with the revolutionary manifestations, or civil war, or with the heavy reliance on foreign countries." The he noticed that many of the "people in power "quite well imagine a similar situation, but not everyone is willing to change. The only painless way out of the "mono-resource state" Gref called the diversification of the economy.

So, in contrast to Russia, Azerbaijan can safely be called super-mono-resource state; and the decay process can go much faster than it seems. So far, as can be seen from the actions of the president and the economic indices, the country is at the stage of development of two of the three possible scenarios: 1. revolution 2.civil war 3. Dependence on foreign influence. The President declared a major reform, which may be regarded as a revolution from above. But it is the announcement of some real action in the form of a roadmap of reforms and the referendum, as a step towards structural change. In reality, there is a third factor - the growing dependence on external influences. If before the crisis in 2014 external debt was at the level of 7% of GDP, now it crossed the mark of 30% and continues to increase exponentially, so the spacecraft power is in search of new borrowing billions.

If the president further delays reforms from above, the revolution from above can change into a revolution of the lower classes, and in the absence of a compromise with the community at this stage, the situation can develop according to the second scenario - civil war. This scenario has the right to life, but it is unlikely in terms of the ability of society and the state to find a consensus in the most difficult periods of the modern history of Azerbaijan. But even in this case it is necessary to bear in mind that the story is not a constant.