Baku should develop a new plan for the Karabakh settlement - Namazov

Baku / 25.07.18 / Turan: Azerbaijan should adopt a new strategic plan to resolve the Karabakh conflict, combining steps in the military, diplomatic and propaganda areas, said the the head of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, former assistant of the President of Azerbaijan, Eldar Namazov, in the interview with the "Cətin Sual" ("Difficult Question") program of Turan agency. He does not expect results from the current negotiation process, because the Armenian side is not ready. "The new authorities of Armenia are between two fires. They are afraid of war - because they understand that the Azerbaijani army is able to liberate the occupied territories.

At the same time, they are afraid to make compromises," Namazov said.

The peaceful way to resolve the conflict is a stage-by-stage plan, which the Armenian side rejects. The new leadership of Armenia wants to gain time, putting forward various unacceptable conditions. If this goes on, then war is inevitable. Namazov continued this openly, both at the official and civil society level. At the same time, in addition to the military way, there are other tasks at the diplomatic level, and in the field of propaganda. If before the fashion was the concept of "hard power", and then "soft power", now there was a new approach - "reasonable strength".

"The latter means use depending on the situation: military force, when it is necessary to diplomacy, and when necessary - propaganda," Namazov remarked. This approach has another name - "hybrid war", in which the principle of reasonable power is taken as a basis.

Azerbaijan did not develop the success of military operations during the April 2016 war on a diplomatic and propaganda track. The advantage gained by the military opened up new opportunities on the political plane, he believes. Now Azerbaijan needs a new strategic plan. The US, Europe, Russia, and Armenia understand the existence of sufficient force for the liberation of the occupied territories.

Pashinyan's words that Russia will not allow a new war to begin is a manifestation of panic fear, Namazov believes.

For another 10 years, Armenia has stated that if the war begins, they will reach Baku.

Three or four years ago in Yerevan they said that the war would have catastrophic consequences for both sides. And now Armenia relies only on Russia, that it will not allow us to start a new war.

Namazov believes that the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry should develop a new diplomatic approach and strategy and clearly divide the territory of the conflict into three parts: the state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia; the territory of the former NKAO; and seven districts around Karabakh. The status of these zones should be different.

Azerbaijan needs to put the issue of seven regions to the forefront. It is necessary to refute Armenia's claims that if Azerbaijan liberates seven regions, it will threaten the destruction of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh, because there are no civilians in the territories around Karabakh. Baku can hold discussions with the Armenian community of Karabakh on the condition that the Armenian forces withdraw from the seven occupied regions, Namazov said.

"The international community should know that if the war begins, it will therefore start that Armenia does not comply with the four resolutions of the UN Security Council," Namazov stressed.

Therefore, Azerbaijan must strive for the adoption of a new resolution of the UN Security Council, which first of all must confirm the maintenance of the previous UN Security Council resolutions that confirm the occupation.

The new resolution should also require the termination of the illegal settlement of the occupied territories by Armenians, the illegal construction and renaming of settlements.

There are precedents for the adoption by the UN Security Council of resolutions on the illegality of settlements being erected in the territories that are intended for the future of the Palestinian state.

The last such resolution was adopted by the UN Security Council on December 23, 2016, with 14 votes in favor, with one abstention. That is, even the US did not veto, despite allied relations with Israel.

How realistic is the adoption of a new resolution on the Karabakh conflict? Answering this question, Namazov said that both the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and other members of the UNSC understand that the Azerbaijani army has the right and is able to liberate the occupied territories. "If they want to show that the conflict can be resolved diplomatically, then there must be a new UN Security Council resolution that confirms that the UN is concerned about wanting to find a solution.

Can the new resolution really affect the situation around the settlement? Answering this question, Namazov said that the new resolution would become a serious message for Armenia and the Armenian society. Namazov also considers it necessary to recall other international documents relating to the Karabakh conflict.

Armenia often appeals to the Bishkek Protocol of 1994. However, there is no such document in reality. That is, there is no real agreement under which the signatures of the parties would stand. Azerbaijan did not recognize the signature of the Karabakh separatists, Armenia - the signatures of the Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Namazov noted with regret that sometimes representatives of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry also refer to the Bishkek protocol. But at the OSCE Lisbon summit in 1996, a special statement was adopted on behalf of all states except Armenia that the Karabakh conflict should be resolved within the framework of territorial integrity with the provision of NK autonomy.

Namazov also drew attention to the fact that Armenia is trying to insure itself with constant reminders of Russia's obligations to the CSTO. Wherein, Moscow is tired of repeating that the obligations concern the protection of the territory of Armenia and do not concern Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan would also be worthy of declaring Russia's obligations to itself. At the beginning of the 19th century, Russia included Azerbaijani khanates and there was not a single Armenian state formation in the South Caucasus. According to the Kyurekchay agreement, the Karabakh khanate included in Russia.At the same time, the Armenian population was resettled there from Iran, and this process was led by Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexander Griboyedov. This should be periodically recalled, said Namazov. -06D-