The third time in the same water: from what obligations?

It was clear that the main party of the ruling bloc, which did not shy away from any accusation metaphor in order to keep a legitimate political party represented in parliament away from the opposition bloc, would try to get closer to the electorate of that party. Because the predictions are clear, the Republican People's Party, the opposition bloc's largest political body, will have to maintain moderate relations with the Kurdish-leaning political party represented in parliament, just as the ruling bloc will not be able to retain its seat if the current political rating does not change radically. Because the Kurdish party played an important role in the victory of the opposition bloc candidate in the repeat municipal elections in Istanbul on June 23, 2019, by 800,000 votes. The Kurdish-leaning political party (the third-largest party in parliament), of which co-founder has been in prison for five years, is now in danger of being closed.

AKP Chairman and President Erdoğan took the next initiative "in this mood and conditions" in the hope of gaining the support of Kurdish voters. The attack of Mr. Erdoğan, who has always sought to keep the "Kurdish issue" at the top of his agenda since the early days of his political career and has reaped the fruits of this, differs in many respects from previous ones. Therefore, despite being greeted with slogans in Kurdish in Diyarbakir a few days ago, the results of the conjuncture, which has changed in the last 20 years with the direct initiative, participation, encouragement, and denial of Mr. Erdoğan, may not be in his favor.

Before moving on to this part of the case, it would be better to look for the answer to the question - "Why did the Turkish president choose to go to Diyarbakir about a month after his meeting with US President Biden? What is the role and impact of the June 14 meeting on this issue? If there was no such meeting, would the leader of the ruling party of Turkey make a new move to gain the support of voters in the southeastern region?”. If we multiply it with the ratio, which one would outweigh? In a few months, the process will take place at the pre-election level, citizens give answers to various topical questions in public opinion polls that upset the ruling bloc, and it is impossible to reverse the declining rating scale.

90% of mayors elected from the south-eastern regions have been dismissed and replaced by guardians of the ruling party. More than 20 deputies of the Kurdish-leaning HDP, which managed to enter the parliament in third place in the June 24, 2018, elections, have been dismissed and some of them have been arrested. Since the 2011 elections, Kurdish voters have been voting on the basis of nationality, not on the basis of "Muslim brotherhood".

On the eve of the repeat elections in Istanbul 25 months ago, an instructive event took place in terms of Kurdish voters: Just as the government created an opportunity for the leader of the terrorist organization, who was sentenced to life imprisonment, to address the Kurdish voters by sending a letter to them, it also aired his brother on state-run Kurdish television and urged voters (undercover) to vote for the ruling party's candidate. However, on election night, when it became clear that the influence of the head of a terrorist organization on Kurdish voters was below the minimum, the ruling party had permanently abandoned that card. Now, the AKP leader and President Erdoğan is not afraid to knock on the door again with the help of politicians, NGO leaders, clan leaders (whoever can speak) who have influence over organizations and the Kurdish community in the southeast. The nature of professional politics demands it, and Turkey's most experienced politician, even if he does not get a vote, tries never to sever ties with the citizens of a part of his country. We repeat: despite the fact that the current atmosphere is not in favor of the ruling party. So, Mr. Erdoğan has repeatedly knocked on those doors throughout his political career: He had reports prepared on the "Kurdish issue" even in the 1990s, and when he was mayor of Istanbul, he regularly traveled to those regions as part of preparations for central politics. In 2000, when he lit the starting fire for the establishment of the AKP, he was accompanied by very experienced Kurdish politicians.

After coming to power on November 3, 2002, the AKP focused on the "Kurdish problem" and in 2004, it succeeded in freeing politicians with organic ties to a terrorist organization who had been imprisoned for 10 years, and the following year, it started the first "Kurdish opening". This policy of the AKP has gained popularity outside the country, as well as Kurdish-oriented policy has become increasingly national.

As a result, although the Kurdish policy last ran in the 2011 elections with independent candidates, as a continuation of the "Kurdish opening" policy that was left unfinished in 2012, the Kurdish-leaning policy has not only become more strongly structured, in the first presidential election in August 2014 (the president was elected by the people, not the parliament), Selahattin Demirtaş, who is currently in prison, went so far as to say to the leader of the ruling party, "We will not let you be elected President."

These words, which were played on tape recorders throughout the country during the election campaign, caused a complete break in the ropes between the AKP and Kurdish-oriented policy leaders. The election will show the implications and consequences of Mr. Erdoğan’s next visit to Diyarbakir, after the Kurdish-leaning party in parliament has been ranked as a terrorist organization for years. In general, this step of the chairman of the Turkish ruling party and the head of state is, in many ways, a candidate for both a litmus test and a breaking point. If anyone asks, "Which points?", I can say:

As the "Kurdish openings" continued in 2007, a British journalist said, "Erdoğan is disputing Atatürk's greatest legacy."

Evaluate the influence of “Adalat Valiyev's opposition” wandering around Ankara "in this mood and conditions"...

Could there be an effect in the style of the "butterfly effect"?

Mayis Alizade