Idlib: Turkey depending on Russia

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- Farhad bey, what is happening in Idlib? How did things ever get so far?

- According to the Sochi Agreement between Turkey and Russia, there should have been observation points around Idlib. Observation points of the Turkish side and the Russian side. But Turkey also made a commitment to Russia that Turkey would disarm terrorist groups there. Only the Free Syrian Army would not be touched and the weapons of the rest would be taken. However, sometimes it is difficult to determine whether the armed men there belong to the Free Syrian Army or any other organization. The second issue is that the Syrian army was, in fact, slowly trying to reclaim its land. I mean it is like trying to go beyond the observation points that Turkey has set. Russia says the opposite. Russia suggests that terrorist forces, which Turkey has not been able to control, have attacked Assad's troops, and the Assad army fended. In any case, the version here is not correct. That is, the Assad army wanted to get them out of Idlib. I think this version is more reasonable. So why should Turkey do this? Indeed, Turkey was trying to keep hold of that place in agreement. Today's power balance still does not allow the Turks to demolish it and take the lands back from the Assad army and then pass it in to the Free Syrian Army. Turkey actually knows it. There have been messages from Putin that Turkey does not fulfill its obligations, Turkey does not disarm armed terrorists, Turkey should respect the territorial integrity of Syria, and taking all this, it can be said that the attacking party was Assad's forces with the support of Russia.

- There is different information about the battles. The Turkish army’s being hit by the Russian air forces, at the same time, the advancement of Turkish troops in Syria. There are various reports about casualties. While Turkish media says very few numbers, international media says higher numbers. There is an information blockade in Turkey. It is said that the information is regulated by the Turkish government. At the same time, there were restrictions on social networks during the events in Turkey. All these steps cause many people to be skeptical. Why is the Turkish government afraid to give people the right information? What does the government refrain from?

- Losses are probably more than officially declared. We will know this precisely after a while. Erdoğan, of course, controls most of the media and does not want the actual figures to appear. Because it would be directly perceived as his political failure. Many Turkish soldiers were killed and actually, they were killed by the Russian air forces, which means that the required air defense system did not participate in the military action. From this point of view, this military operation will be considered unsuccessful. For this reason, it is said that the actual figures are hidden. It should be expected that this figure will rise. Different numbers are said. There are different numbers, such as 33, 58, 120, 158. But it is impossible to say which one is accurate.

- It is said that Turkey asked for help from the West, with which the Turkish government has broken relations, especially the United States. Do you think the West, the United States will help Turkey in this case, or will it leave Turkey with its past mistakes?

- History shows that at a stage when Russia came closer to Istanbul, Britain intervened, gave the Russians an ultimatum and expelled the Russians from there. In international relations, it is important to keep forces within certain limits. That is to say, Russia must be stopped without getting Turkey out of the way more in the region before it widens its arms. Second, they will make it more understandable for Erdoğan that who is his real ally. Here, it is necessary to look at the long-term interests. When Turkey bought the S-400s, many people knew that Turkey would not be able to use it against anyone. Because Turkey's rivals in the region are not Western countries. It is true that the US has a plan to create a Kurdish state there. But Turkey will never enter the war with the United States. It is impossible. This is not a probable issue. Turkey will not use the S-400s against the Kurds. The other rivals are Iran, Syria, and Iraq. These are some of the countries that use Russian patronage to some extent. It is not possible for Turkey to use the S-400s against the air force of these countries without Russia's consent. Turkey must agree with Russia if it wants to carry out any action against those countries. What I want to say is that missiles like the S-400 are not combating missiles that Turkey can freely decide to use. And, of course, it is impossible to integrate them into the NATO system. At the moment, it turns out that we do not know how many and on which sides S-400 missiles were installed. It is currently not available to use for Turkey. The US had warned Turkey in this regard. But Erdoğan entered the S-400 game. In politics, you have to be able to play between different powers. In order to become a regional power, you must necessarily rely on a superpower. This is one of the rules in international relations theory. Turkey was also making different choices between Russia and the West in this game. But it did not understand that its choice could be used as a bluff. But it was not necessary to execute it. It should not push on until buying the S-400 rockets. But Turkey did it and suffered serious damage. At the same time, the US and the West will probably not leave Turkey and Russia head to head in this matter. Maybe they will stop the conflict at this stage but they will support Erdoğan to some extent if they see that the conflict will grow because of Erdoğan’s mistake.

- We have witnessed the relations between Russia and Turkey approached several times in the past and each time this rapprochement ended in tragedy. Why does the Turkish government not take a lesson from this? Why does the Turkish government not re-examine its international relations? What are the obstacles? Erdoğan’s arrogance or geostrategic realities?

- Taking into account Turkey's resources - its army, money circulation, industrial production, and military industry, it is a limited force. It can also act as a regional power. But what is clear is that Erdoğan wants to push the boundaries of this apparent regional power. He intervenes in military operations in Libya and Syria. Erdoğan does not calculate his strength and what Turkey can do. If Erdoğan knew the history well, he had to realize that Russia and Turkey have been in serious competition in the Middle East for a long time. There is some competition between them in the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The second reason is that in recent years, a tendency of Eurasianism has intensified in Turkey. In fact, Russian special services played a direct role in strengthening this tendency. One of the main supporters of this in Turkey is Doğu Perinçek and the Labor Party. He has a relationship with Dugin. On the other hand, the EU has turned away from Erdoğan, rightly or wrongly following certain policies executed by Erdoğan. In this situation, Erdoğan turned his face to the Shanghai organization. This was one of the factors that strengthened Eurasianism. It can be said that Erdoğan indeed has done it with caprice. Another reason for coming closer to Russia was that Erdoğan had hit a Russian aircraft by not being able to keep his caprices and feelings under control.  However, even the United States did not take such a serious step. After this step, Erdoğan had to somehow win the hearts of Russia. There were serious tourism and agricultural sale between the two countries. Embargo laid on Russia related to agricultural products has not been completely abolished. At this stage of the rapprochement, it is possible to consider building a pipeline, building a nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, and negotiation in the military industry. In fact, by doing so in the military industry, Erdoğan has made Turkey seriously dependent on Russia. This was one of the most serious mistakes made in Turkey's foreign policy. Because for a long time, even Kılıçdaroğlu warned Erdoğan that he should be engaged in talks directly with Damascus. It must be understood after a certain stage in the solution of the Kurdish issue and after the failure of the Jihad Revolution in Syria that it was necessary to reach an agreement with Assad. However, Erdoğan could not do it in a principled manner.