Lilia Shevtsova: tectonic shifts are taking place in the Azerbaijani society

 The quest of the radio "Azerbaijan saati", a Russian political scientist Lilia Shevtsova said the "cold war" between Russia and the West, Moscow's policy in the former Soviet Union, and the situation in Azerbaijan. Shevtsova noted that fears of the Newly Independent States (NIS) of the Kremlin on retribution in case of their turning towards the West. The current Russian system - expansionism, the autocracy, control of the spheres of influence, an attempt to create some kind of a galaxy of other countries with the center in Moscow, which seeks to keep the country's satellites in orbit - this is one of the foundations of the new Russian system, said Shevtsova, noting that she cannot live differently. According to her, Russia can only exist only as a great power, which threatens with arms and is ready to kick all the nations.

Russia should fear, but it is impossible to exaggerate the military aggression and annexation, she said, noting that the technocrats around the Kremlin, and the people in the Kremlin,  who invented the massive variants of impact,  are quite experienced and skillful.  They are  co-optation of elites in neighboring countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, different gas, trade wars, the impact of refugees in Russia.  The influence on a million of Azerbaijanis in Moscow is also a form of indirect influence on Baku, the political analyst said, noting the weakness of the states, which invite outside influence. For example, says the expert, Azerbaijan buys Russian weapons worth four billion. At the same time, Armenia receives from Russia weapons amounting 200 million in credit. This is an attempt to create a balance and in parallel, it is a militarization of the region. These countries need to seek an antidote, but the problem is that  we have not found it yet  in Russia, she said.

  Shevtsova also pointed out that Russia and other authoritarian NIS tend to isolate themselves from outside influences. In this sense, the Russian demarche of the failure of the European Court was expected. And it can happen in other NIS. The expert said that while Europe is silent, and no one knows how it will affect Moscow and Baku, as well.

 The escape of a number of Azerbaijani diplomats to the West Shevtsova sees as evidence of the presence of very serious forces in the Azerbaijani political elite and society, who are dissatisfied with the political regime in Baku. Diplomats are relatively conservative, cautious part of the state system. If the representatives of this control system decide to leave the country and defy the power, it means that the country is experiencing very serious tectonic changes, which  are not in Russia, says Shevtsova.

However, she expressed the hope that the NIS, including Azerbaijan will take the path of European integration much earlier than Russia. Russia is a little frozen empire which has not broken up completely. And Imperial - it is always an obstacle to any transformation. So, alas, you have to go first, and ahead of,  said Lilia Shevtsova.-0-

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