"Official Baku is in a hurry, and the European Union is interested in a more complete document"

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Question: Why do you think official Baku is postponing the adoption of the final decision on the Strategic Partnership Agreement with the European Union?

Answer: Official Baku stated that it is not ready to implement some points of the bilateral document, the preparation of which began in 2017. For example, the second point of the proposed agreement provides for Azerbaijan's accession to the WTO (World Trade Organization). However, official Baku demands a 10-year delay from the European Union. Another controversial issue is that Azerbaijan is dividing its airspace based on preferential tariffs from the European Union. However, official Baku has not taken any serious steps in this direction. It is about ending AZAL's monopoly, reducing tariffs and, as a result, the arrival of cheap European companies such as Ryaner Airlines in Baku. Imagine, in this case, imagine, passengers will be able to fly to any European capital for 80 euros. The prices set by AZAL are by many times higher.

Question: President of the European Council Charles Michel arrived in Baku last month. The results of the visit were considered satisfactory for both sides, and there were high hopes that the agreement would be signed in the near future. What did suddenly happen? What is the problem?

Answer: The European Union has been waiting for the final decision of official Baku on the proposals related to the agreement for more than 6 months. On June 12, the President of the EU Council called President Ilham Aliyev and exchanged views with him on this issue and on the post-war situation in the region. The purpose of his July visit to the South Caucasus, and especially on July 18 in Baku was to study the position of official Baku following the discussions around this agreement. However, if we pay attention to the opinions expressed at the leaders' press conference held following the meeting, we would see that Michel was dissatisfied with the result of his visit to Baku. This is confirmed by the statement at the same press conference by Ilham Aliyev, who said, "Ensuring the energy security of Europe is for us the main priority in bilateral relations."

In the last month of last year and at the beginning of this year, both official Baku and the EU received positive signals that the agreement would be signed. Because constructive discussions took place between the parties on a number of issues. The only problem is that official Baku cannot show enough will and determination. By the way, official Baku is in a hurry, while the EU is interested in signing a perfect document. Unfortunately, I must note that the likelihood of signing this agreement during the next summit of the Eastern Partnership in the 6 + 27 format, which will be held in Brussels in December this year, is not great. Because, as I said, official Baku has a lot of unfinished work.

Question: Is it possible that some third party that does not want to sign this agreement is hindering Azerbaijan in this? Is it possible that the Azerbaijani side is looking for a suitable time and opportunity to sign an agreement? 

Answer: Third-party interference can only be from Russia. However, note that back in November 2016, during a visit to Baku by a number of officials of the European Parliament and the European Union, they officially turned to Ilham Aliyev with a proposal to conclude an Association Agreement between Azerbaijan and the European Union. Then Ilham Aliyev, referring to the Russian factor and the recent events on the Maidan, said that Azerbaijan could sign the proposed Strategic Partnership Agreement with the EU. After that, the European Commission and the Council of the European Union, having received a mandate, began to develop jointly the provisions of the agreement. In the last month of last year and at the beginning of this year, both official Baku and the EU received positive signals that the agreement would be signed. Because constructive discussions took place between the parties on a number of issues.

After the Second Karabakh War, when Azerbaijan regained most of its sovereignty, official Baku as the winner required a rebranding in foreign policy, especially in rapprochement with the West. Otherwise, when determining its future foreign policy, Azerbaijan will not be able to get rid of the influence of Russia, and the risks that it can lead to undesirable consequences are quite high.

Question: What will the signing of an agreement with the European Union give Azerbaijan, or what can Azerbaijan lose if it is not signed?

Answer: In essence, the signing of this agreement with the EU is primarily necessary for Azerbaijan. Considering the withdrawal of Belarus from the Eastern Partnership program, Azerbaijan is the only country that has not raised the official relations with the EU, which began in 1999, to a new level. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have already signed an Association Agreement with the EU, and Armenia signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement in 2017. The signing of this agreement between Azerbaijan and the EU will provide Azerbaijan with billions of euros to fulfill the obligations contained in the document (reforms in various fields). It is possible that if Azerbaijan makes real progress in the priority areas outlined in this agreement, it will be able to use the visa-free regime to enter Europe in a few years. I repeat that this will depend on the extent to which official Baku fulfills the obligations assumed under the agreement.

Refusal to sign the agreement could further weaken the prestige of Azerbaijan in the international arena and lead to isolation from the West. This option would not be a good choice for either government or society.

Question: What do you suggest? Should the Azerbaijani side sign this agreement as soon as possible? What should be the best option for both sides?

Answer: Official Baku should not hesitate to sign this agreement. Currently, the processes within the Eastern Partnership program are progressing so quickly that the three countries that have signed the Association Agreement (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) are showing great persistence in striving, without waiting for other countries, to join the European family. The prime minister can be the joint declaration signed by Charles Michel on July 19 at the international conference "Georgia's European Way" in Batumi with the participation of the leaders of the three countries.

From the point of view of the revival of fundamental freedoms and economic freedoms in the country and as a strategy for European integration in general, an agreement on strategic partnership with the European Union should be signed as soon as possible.

Reference: Relations between Azerbaijan and the EU were established in 1991. The partnership and cooperation agreement signed in 1996 covers cooperation in the fields of political dialogue, trade, investment, legislation, science and culture. In 1998, the EU appointed a special representative to Azerbaijan. In 2000, the Permanent Mission of Azerbaijan to the EU was established. In July 2003, the EU appointed a Special Representative for the South Caucasus. In 2004, Azerbaijan was included in the European Neighborhood Policy, and in 2009 in its Eastern Partnership program in the format of multilateral cooperation in the eastern direction. In 2014, the parties signed a protocol on Azerbaijan's participation in EU programs and agencies. On November 14, 2016, the EU Council approved the mandate of the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy to negotiate a comprehensive agreement with Azerbaijan on behalf of the EU and EU member states.

The Eastern Partnership program covers six neighboring countries of the European Union. These are Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and Armenia. An association agreement with the organization was signed by Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. In November 2017, a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement was signed between the organization and Armenia. However, the EU and Azerbaijan have not yet signed this agreement.

Kamran Mahmudov