Russia and the West want peace at any price, expert

For Russia and the West, the main thing in the Karabakh conflict is to achieve any truce. Karabakh is the rare case where the interests of Russia and the West are close enough in the sense that large-scale war should be prevented. This opinion expressed in an interview with Turan-known Russian expert, editor of the "Daily Journal" Alexander Golts, commenting on the possibility of implementing a phased plan for the settlement of the conflict. "However, I do not think that there is a clear plan, which is followed by Russia. For Moscow, the important thing is to maintain the truce," he said. Knowing the negative attitude to this option on the part of Armenia, Russia will not take such a risk, taking into account the role and significance of Armenia to Moscow, the presence in this country, the only military base in the South Caucasus, said Golts. Asking the question  on the reason why Russia openly supported Armenia during the April war, the expert noted that the position of Russia is to occupy the "equidistant" position.

"On the one hand, it is not logical, as Armenia is a military ally, but Azerbaijan is not. However, if Russia supported Armenia, it would lead to the complete collapse of Russian policy in the South Caucasus," Golts said. Expert excluded the possibility of backroom agreements between Baku and Moscow for local or small war to persuade Armenia to accept a phased plan. "Russia will unlikely take such a risk, taking into account its importance to Armenia," says Golts.

Being asked to assess the military potential of Azerbaijan, the expert noted a significant amount of

serious arms acquired in recent years. However, if we evaluate the results of the April battles, the successes of the Azerbaijani army in the presence of such weapons should have been longer, he said.

Being asked about the possibility of resumption of fighting, the expert noted that it cannot be ruled out. However, the effect of surprise is no longer present. Re-crack the defense of Armenians will require considerable effort and sacrifice. Moreover, the Armenian side has an advantageous position, occupying heights, and it will be easier to organize the defense. However, the resumption of the war is not excluded, especially since there are many internal factors pushing side to this, Goltz concluded. -02В