Systemic crisis

Recently, we have been witnessing one after another local mass protests in front of various state structures: in front of the Presidential Administration, and an action of activists in front of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and an action of veterans held in a tense atmosphere in front of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population, and an action of relatives of the victims of the "Terter case" in front of the Military Prosecutor's Office, etc. Pro-government media traditionally link these actions and the reasons behind them to the mysterious hand of some forces that want to plunge the country into chaos.

ASTNA asked the political observer Arastun Orujlu  to talk about the reasons for these protests

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Question: Arastun Bey, social tensions have been prevailing among people lately. Successive local protests, suicides. What do you think are the reasons behind this tension?

Answer: The main reason for what you have listed is the social crisis that has gripped the country. This can also be called a “systemic crisis”. That is,  the talk is about not only the growth of discontent in some areas or groups of the population, but also about the inability of state and government bodies to adequately respond to them and take appropriate measures. These are the reasons that generate tension: the crisis is growing, and the government is not trying, by choosing appropriate behavior, to alleviate the situation, or is not at all concerned about it. The crisis in the country, covered not only one or another socio-economic sphere, but also the management system that generates these crises. Hence the conclusion - the management system lacks an objective assessment of the criticality of the situation, and this indicates the inevitability of an even greater deepening of the crisis.

Question: Are social protests justified or is there really an action of forces that want to plunge the country into chaos?

Answer: Without a doubt, social protests are justified and their cause is a worthless social policy. Is it possible to have a different assessment of the policy when a citizen, risking his life voluntarily taking up arms to liberate his country from occupation, loses his job and cannot receive from the state for which he fought, not only benefits, but even certificates of an ordinary participant in the war? How can one assess the fact that thousands of people who were subjected to mass torture, having demanded the restoration of their rights, are again threatened by criminals? What trace of those who want to plunge the country into chaos can we talk about if various state bodies and authorities, in particular the power structure with dangerous resources, are being held by a criminal and challenging the people?

First of all, the internal problems of the country must find their solution, and then there will be no opportunity to arrange a turmoil or the risk of this will turn out to be within non-dangerous limits. Therefore, attributing all problems to those who want unrest is not only an evasion from solving internal problems, but even a denial of their very existence. And although I am not saying that there are no attempts, in the current active phase of geopolitical tensions, to sow chaos in the country. On the contrary, I say that they exist, and quite serious ones at that. But this is not a way out of the situation, leaving domestic issues unresolved means serving their (hostile forces - ed.) interests.

Question:  I especially asked this question. To give examples, veterans are protesting in front of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, breaking down doors, entering the building and putting forward their demands. Immediately in the media, the denigration of these veterans begins. Or members of the Muslim Unity movement hold a hunger strike, and the Committee for Work with Religious Organizations and the Caucasian Muslims Office spread a statement that there are people in the country who want to arrange religious strife. Why, when such cases occur, instead of taking adequate measures, the authorities and government bodies begin to disseminate such information, trying to cast doubt on the protesters, embark on a search for other traces behind these events?

Answer: I will add one more example to the examples you cited: executions are carried out in  the region of Terter, those who expose the perpetrators of these atrocities, criminal cases are initiated on false charges and sent to prison. Many examples can be given. Summarizing, it should be recognized that all these are signs of the crisis I mentioned above. The absolute majority of those in government offices have become so distant from society that they do not see how dangerous such “propaganda” is, first of all, for themselves. Here I would like to return to the topic of “those who want to plunge the country into chaos”, which you touched on in the previous question. It turns out that “those who want to plunge the country into chaos” are precisely those who have concentrated broad powers in their hands and create problems, as in the examples you and I cited. Consequently, if there are other traces behind the events, then they need to be looked for in high government offices. Moreover, this must be done as soon as possible, otherwise tomorrow may be too late.

Question: The authorities do not understand that by taking such steps they are further increasing the dose of protest in society?

Answer: I don't think they do. They understand that such a system of relations has been built in the ruling hierarchy that it is necessary to talk not about the real situation, but about the desired one, and at the same time it is impossible to come up with any initiatives at all levels that would entail the burden of responsibility. In a sense, as in the principle "initiative is punishable" that existed in the Soviet army. Moreover, internal political intrigues, strife, and struggle between groups have reached such a degree that it is either too late to change the situation, or it requires taking quite decisive steps. And for the latter, political will is needed, which, unfortunately, is not yet visible.

Question: Who created this situation? Is this being done by a single center of power, or is someone inside the government interested in escalating this tension?

Answer: In my opinion, there is no single center of power. The increase in tension is the result of the activities of internal groups of the 5th column existing in the country. If there was a single control center, then he could easily prevent this, but if they cannot do this, then either such a center does not already exist, or it does not have enough strength. Because a single center in the system of power of our type is concentrated around the first person, and all the failures of power turn into a target the same center that heads its first person. Logic dictates that a single center should in no case be interested in increasing tension. Hence the conclusion that internal conflicts have paralyzed the "control panel", which we call the "single center" of the system.

Question: How to correct the situation in this coordinate system? What steps should the authorities take to calm the society, the people?

Answer: To correct the situation, in my opinion, two groups of measures need to be launched: to take decisive steps leading to short-term and long-term results. The former include - the removal of criminalized officials and public officials, ensuring their responsibility for the crimes committed; reduction in order to improve the socio-economic situation of customs duties and taxes through the elimination of monopolies, in parallel with this, a serious purge in these bodies themselves. In general, all this can also be called steps aimed at restoring justice. And as long-term measures, I would suggest ensuring the legitimacy of the wings of power in the country and creating conditions for the beginning of at least partial independent activity. This should also include carrying out deep reforms in all areas, as the country has reached such a state that deep reforms should already be carried out in all areas. But, unfortunately, instead of these reforms, the authorities prefer to imitate them. This is a completely wrong approach, because it leads to the fact that people's expectations are eventually replaced by disappointment. And then, the propensity for radicalization, polarization, hatred, anger, anger and other destructive factors begin to prevail in society. You don't need the gift of prophecy to understand where and what it can lead to in the end.