The US proposal to impose sanctions against Azerbaijani officials; pressure or punishment?

A group of American congressmen, led by Dina Titus, plans to submit a bill on the imposition of sanctions against Azerbaijan to Congress this week, Turan's correspondent in Washington learned about this from Congressional sources.

The bill provides for sanctions against more than 40 Azerbaijani officials - military, judges, investigators and high-ranking officials who "played an active role in undermining the rule of law and human rights in the country." Among them are representatives of the Ministry of Defense, the Prosecutor General's Office, the Baku Court of Serious Crimes, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Security Service, the Penitentiary Service, the State Border Service and the Presidential Administration.

The bill will call on the Biden administration to take a decision within 180 days on sanctions against this group of individuals, in accordance with US law, including the Global Magnitsky Act.

The adoption of such a bill is explained by "the government's brutal repression of the opposition and serious concern about human rights violations in Azerbaijan."

In particular, the arrests of opposition leaders, activists and those who criticize the authorities, including Gubad Ibadoglu, are mentioned.

The bill also refers to violations of the rights of Armenian prisoners. This "casts serious doubt on the commitment of the Azerbaijani government to respect human rights and its ability to negotiate a just and lasting peace," the document says.

Former diplomat Emin Shaig Ibrahimov answers questions from ASTNA on this topic.

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Question: The US Congress is preparing a bill on sanctions against a group of Azerbaijani government officials. We have been hearing about Western sanctions for years, but no real steps have been taken. It is as if the West has been using the topic of sanctions for years as an instrument of pressure on Azerbaijan. How will it be this time? Can sanctions really be imposed or will they be used again as a means of exerting pressure?

Answer: We have been saying for some time now that the West may impose sanctions against the Azerbaijani authorities. Every day this probability increases. The issue of sanctions is primarily related to the fact that in the geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia in the region, the authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan is on the side of Russia. To put it more specifically, the West wants at the moment to prevent Russian-inspired military pressure on Armenia from the Azerbaijani authorities. The joint pressure of Putin and Aliyev on Armenia primarily serves to oust the West from the region. If the Azerbaijani authorities go to military clashes with Armenia, then the adoption of sanctions is quite realistic. By putting forward such sanctions projects, the West demonstrates the seriousness of its intentions.

I would like to note that the United States has already restored the 907th Amendment, which has been frozen for many years. The activation of a passive sanction in itself is something like the imposition of the same sanction. That is, there is tension in the relationship. It also did not escape attention that for the first time since the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, the US President did not send a congratulatory letter.

Question: The news about the sanctions came at an interesting moment - on the day of the visit and meeting of the President of Azerbaijan to Russia, after an extensive article "dealt a blow" to the independent civil society in the media, which are the mouthpiece of Russia. Is there a connection between all of this?

Answer: Everything happens in a single context. In other words, in parallel with the aspiration of the Azerbaijani authorities to embrace the Putin regime, authoritarianism is increasing in the country.  Russian propaganda media rule the ball here.  This applies not only to those media outlets that are directly related to Russia. Many media outlets under the control of the regime are also openly engaged in propaganda of Russian theses. In general, the narratives of both regimes can be said to coincide. There is nothing surprising about Aliyev's visit to Moscow either. They are assessing the situation in accordance with their common strategic alliance and, in all likelihood, discussing the next steps.

Question: Some names on the sanctions list, which has not yet become official, have caused outrage in society. For example, the name of Hikmet Mirzoev. For his services in the liberation of Karabakh, he enjoys great prestige among the people. Why was his name on the list?

Answer: I have always been a supporter of the West's adoption of sanctions against the Azerbaijani authorities. We need to weaken this regime. That is why sanctions against the regime are useful. But it is also a sensitive topic. Sanctions should be drafted in such a way that the people do not suffer from this and the regime is not given additional excuses for manipulation. In general, the most effective sanctions against the Azerbaijani authorities may be those aimed at representatives of the elite who play a direct role in the deterioration of human rights. In order for the sanctions to be effective, it is also necessary to gain the support of the Azerbaijani public for these sanctions. The public should see that the West's goal is precisely to weaken the regime. And you can do it best from the inside. If all these external pressures are not combined with internal pressure, this will lead to even greater closure and consolidation of this regime. Therefore, strengthening the opposition should become one of the main goals of the sanctions policy. With the right strategy, the internal pillars of the regime can be shaken. The West must understand that the policy of "appeasement" will not work with this regime. On the contrary, it will damage the image of the West, strengthening anti-Western sentiments in society. The West looks like one of the main pillars of power. Instead of covering up the pro-Russian policy of the regime, it is necessary to expose it. It will also limit the ability of the authorities to manipulate. No matter how much the regime threatens to withdraw to Russia, they do not have many opportunities to find shelter in Russia.  The more the proximity to Russia is exposed, the faster they will weaken.

Taking all this into account, one should be careful when preparing sanctions lists. There should be consultations with a truly independent civil society and the opposition of Azerbaijan. It is necessary to avoid moments that can fuel the propaganda of the Azerbaijani authorities. It is necessary to avoid nuances that weaken political forces wishing to democratize Azerbaijan and rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic space.

Question: Usually, when the issue of sanctions comes up, the number of political arrests in Azerbaijan begins to grow. Is it possible to predict a wave of arrests this time?

Answer: I do not expect any serious mitigation. From time to time, some individual maneuvers are possible. Because the authorities are also not interested in the rapid severance of ties with the West. But they are in a process that will lead to a strengthening of the regime in the country, an even greater strangulation of freedoms and an increase in dependence on Russia. To prevent this, the West must adopt sanctions against the regime, must not appease the pro-Russian and dictatorial policies of the authorities, and must support the growth of public resistance in the country.

Question: On the day when the sanctions became known, the decision to arrest Gubad Ibadoglu was changed to house arrest. Could this be related to the topic of sanctions? Or could this move be interpreted as a message from a party seeking sanctions?

Answer:  Putting Gubad Ibadoglu under house arrest was good news. There is no doubt that this event is connected with the pressure of the West. But do not fall into illusions.  The situation with the arrest of countless innocent people for political reasons and changing the punishment for one person to house arrest does not change the situation.  The reactionary system, which can at any moment, slanderously arrest any person, has not gone away. Hundreds of political prisoners are still being held in prisons. Given the place of the West–Russia confrontation in the region and the parallel confrontation between democracy and dictatorship, no one should have any doubts about what the main strategic line of the government will be.

Episodes may change. However, there is no reason to expect a change in the strategic line.