Why Is Russia So Concerned About The Arrest Of Former Armenian Officials?

On Tuesday, Russia"s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticised the recent arrest of the former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and other regime members, calling it "politically motivated". Robert Kocharyan and other former officials are charged with overthrowing the constitutional order following the 1st March 2008 unrest in Yerevan. Sergey Lavrov also said that as an ally Russia is interested in stability in Armenia and that what happens in Armenia is of concern to Russia.

It is well known that Mr Kocharyan was in Moscow during the 1st March protests against the rigged election in 2008. According to some experts, he received a direct order from the Putin regime to crush the protests in which 10 people lost their lives.

At the start of this year"s revolution in Armenia, Moscow tried to defend its interests in the country by providing support to Serzh Sargsyan"s government. Russia"s economic, political and military monopoly over Armenia is now being put at risk following the election of Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. In the midst of protests in May, Nikol Pashinyan avoided open criticism of Russia, but did say "we have differences too". He tried to be more diplomatic and called Russia a strategic ally. After his election as prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan has set out to diversify Armenia"s foreign policy. He has appointed Western-educated, liberally minded people to his government. This could be seen as not in Russia"s interest at all. Apart from that Russia"s political assets in Armenia have always been represented by the Karabakh clan, headed by Kocharyan since the Karabakh war. The Karabakh clan played a vital role in terms of sustaining Russia"s political, military and economic interests in the South Caucasus. Russia has no intention of losing Armenia where its only military base in the region is stationed.

I wrote in my previous article that after the successful completion of the Velvet Revolution, Mr Pashinyan"s troubles with Russia have only just begun. The geopolitical situation in the region will shape the future of the ongoing democratic reforms in Armenia.

Considering that Russia is getting anxious following the recent political changes, it may use whatever means are necessary to keep Armenia within its orbit of influence. The Mountainous Karabakh conflict, which was created by Moscow to keep both Armenia and Azerbaijan under its political influence, may be reignited by Russia again. Moscow may encourage the Azerbaijani government to start a military operation in some of the seven occupied districts, but it must be kept in mind that Russia will never allow either side to emerge victorious at the end of the day. This kind of scenario would be beneficial only to President Putin, who wants to destroy the process of democratisation in the world. The Azerbaijani government also is interested in the derailment of democratic changes in Armenia, which might spread into the region.

Armenia"s new leadership must be provided with necessary diplomatic and economic support. Most importantly, its democratisation process needs strong support from the Western democracies. The United States and France are the key players in providing this support. Resolving the Mountainous Karabakh issue needs to be given priority by these countries in order to prevent Russia"s threat to democratisation.