Peace on the eve of Brussels

The visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Baku on February 27-78 fits perfectly into the Brussels process of peaceful settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Lavrov most likely came to the Azerbaijani capital to immerse himself in the aura of peace talks between Baku and Yerevan, which are currently developing in the western hemisphere of the 30-year conflict settlement process.

The Russian Foreign Minister did not express Moscow's negative attitude to the Brussels format, but made it clear that the settlement process should not be directed against Russia's interests.

"We have nothing against other parties helping to resolve all these issues, first of all, reaching an agreement on a peace treaty, but with the understanding that this will be done sincerely, based on the interest in establishing lasting peace, ensuring conditions for the further development of all peoples," Lavrov said during the third meeting of the Russian- Azerbaijan Expert Council in Baku.

In recent months, the Moscow process has been frozen in anticipation, formally due to the unwillingness of the Armenian side to move towards peace with Azerbaijan in Moscow's wake. Yerevan expresses dissatisfaction with the lack of solidarity on the part of the Putin administration, and especially after last September's fighting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, when the CSTO refused to support Armenia, which demanded military intervention by members of the bloc, which, ironically, are strategic allies of Azerbaijan today.

Moscow is not against the Brussels process, as it coincides with the view from the Faceted Chamber of the Kremlin, from where the settlement of the conflict takes place through the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, which essentially closes the long-standing issue of the independence of the Armenian-populated part of Karabakh. This position is expressed in the trilateral statement of the Presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia dated November 9-10, 2020, which stopped the 44-day war.

The parties to the conflict and Western mediators represented by the United States and the EU are trying not to particularly annoy Moscow with their peacekeeping efforts, focusing on the settlement process and preparing for the Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in the near future. "We hope to see the parties gather in Brussels in the coming days to participate in the negotiations organized by EU President Michel and we hope to see the continuation of this progress," State Department spokesman Ned Price said on February 22.

The preparation of the meeting was connected with the visit to Yerevan and Baku of the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar, who held talks with Pashinyan and Aliyev on the eve of Lavrov's visit. "We are working in this direction, and that is why I am here in Yerevan," Klar said.

Klaar came to the region to clarify the details of the future meeting, based on the latest consultations at the Munich Conference on February 17: Aliyev-Blinken-Pashinyan, Aliyev-Michel-Pashinyan, Aliyev-Garibashvili-Pashinyan. After the meetings, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted "significant progress" towards a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan, stressing that everything is "going according to plan."

Americans' optimism is based on two important issues: Yerevan presented Baku with a new revised draft of the peace treaty, which excludes the mention of Karabakh and the problem in general, and Baku expressed its readiness to conduct direct negotiations with the Armenian community of Karabakh. The first contacts were resumed after the Russian oligarch Ruben Vardanyan left the leadership of the community. On March 1, representatives of Baku met with representatives of Armenians of Karabakh in the city of Khojaly in Karabakh, where the headquarters of Russian peacekeepers is located.

The issues of reintegration of the Armenian residents of the Karabakh region to Azerbaijan were discussed at the meeting.

Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alain Simonyan noted on February 28 that the Armenian side is against the inclusion of "bombs" in the text of the document that could threaten the statehood, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Armenia. According to him, the peace treaty should not contain any provisions concerning the Karabakh problem.

The text of the draft treaty is currently being studied by Baku, which wants to see it based on the five principles of peace achievements, which provide for mutual recognition of territorial integrity, non-interference in each other's affairs, the opening of communications and the reanimation of all integration ties.

The expected Brussels meeting will at least bring the parties closer to achieving peace, and at most, it can become a platform for signing a final peace treaty.