Liberated lands: damage and potential assessments, there are many pitfalls on this way

Baku / 14.11.20 / Turan: On November 13, Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov ordered the creation of multi-level special groups of experts to assess the damage caused by the Armenian Armed Forces to the civil infrastructure, population and entrepreneurs of Azerbaijan during the hostilities.  Coordination group in the apparatus of the Cabinet of Ministers; a working group for the management of relevant areas, consisting of the deputy heads of the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Emergencies, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Deputy Prosecutor General, representatives of the Ministry of Finance, ASAN, the State Committee for Urban Planning and Architecture; working groups consisting of representatives of relevant government agencies have been crteated.  The working groups have been created for the following districts and cities - Agdam, Agjabedin, Beylagan, Barda, Terter, Fizuli, Jebrail, Goranboy and Naftalan, Ganja,  and Mingachevir. In Tartar region, taking into account the scale of damage, three working groups have been formed.

"The working groups will assess the damage and, by December 10, 2020, will submit proposals on the means necessary for its elimination, complete rehabilitation of damaged facilities and repair and construction," the prime minister said. The Ministry of Transport, Communications and High Technologies, the State Oil Company (SOCAR), Azersu OJSC, Azerenerji OJSC, Azerishig CJSC and the State Agency for Highways were also instructed to assess the damage caused to infrastructure facilities and submit proposals to the Commission by December 1, 2020 about the financial resources required to liquidate it.

By December 10, 2020, ASAN must form a unified database on damage and its elimination, as well as the costs of full restoration and repair of damaged objects. Earlier, the President of Azerbaijan signed a decree on the creation of a state commission to assess the damage caused to civil infrastructure, the population and entrepreneurs in the country; its chair was Prime Minister Ali Asadov, Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev. This coordinating state commission should complete its work by the end of the year and submit proposals to the head of state on the amount of financing for the restoration of the damaged facilities.

It is noteworthy that at the  instruction of the Prime Minister  does not mention the Lachin, Gubadli, Zangilan and Kelbajar regions and a number of cities and settlements in Nagorno-Karabakh, some of which were conquered by Azerbaijan during the hostilities on September 27-November 9, 2020. And some part must be returned to Azerbaijan on the basis of the Peace Declaration signed by the President of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation on the night of November 9-10. Most likely, the work on these areas can be determined in the coming months, after the Armenian Armed Forces leave them based on the Declaration of Peace. Kelbajar region should be liberated by November 15, Agdam region - by November 20, Lachin - by December 1.

There are questions about the possibility of the commissions' work in those regions of Azerbaijan, in which, according to the maps published by the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Russian peacekeepers are stationed (with the consent of Azerbaijan and Armenia, enshrined this week).

For example, in the Aghdam region, patrols of military police units will operate, in the Terter region (excluding the eastern part, and so controlled by Azerbaijan) - observer posts of the peacekeeping mission. The same observation posts will be in the Lachin region (excluding the 5-kilometer Lachin transport corridor, there is a separate status for it) and in a number of settlements in Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation is aggravated by the fact that, leaving these areas, Armenians burn houses and all infrastructure. Nevertheless, a number of Azerbaijani companies and banks have already announced that they are organizing work in the liberated territories, for example, Azercell, Bank Respublika. Of course, specialists from ANAMA (Azerbaijani Agency for Mine Action) must work on the ground before full-scale activity.

According to various independent experts, the damage to Azerbaijani lands can range from $ 20-50 billion - a gigantic amount for the country's economy, weakened in 2020 by the fall in oil prices (the main source of foreign exchange earnings), the COVID-19 coronavirus and the 44-day war itself. Turkish Trade Minister Rukhsar Pekjan recently announced about assistance in restoring the liberated lands.

Turkey, which provides support in the training of Azerbaijani military experts, political lobbying for Azerbaijan's position and actions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, will also enter the Center for Monitoring the Observance of the Ceasefire Regime.

"Turkish companies are ready to invest and take part in construction projects in the territories of Azerbaijan liberated from occupation," Pekcan emphasized during a teleconference with the Minister of Economy of Azerbaijan, Mikail Jabbarov.

Turkey also relies on road infrastructure (roads and railways), which will connect it through the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan and the isthmus in Armenia with the main territory of Azerbaijan (this point is reflected in the Declaration of Peace).

It is possible that Iran will also offer some efforts, since the vast length of its border with Azerbaijan has been liberated and there are conditions for Khudaferin projects (energy and roads). The EU has declared its readiness to provide additional humanitarian assistance to meet the needs of the civilian population affected by the conflict and has already committed about € 1 million in emergency assistance.

It should be noted that during the period of the Armenian occupation in Lachin and Kelbajar regions, there was a certain infrastructure in Shusha. These territories were inhabited. However, her condition will be determined later. As for the Fizuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, Gubadli and Aghdam regions, the main part of the settlements and infrastructure there has been destroyed. It is possible that after assessing the damage, Azerbaijan will turn to the world community for assistance in restoring life in the liberated regions. In addition, claims for payment of compensation by Armenia will be sent to various international instances.

According to the head of the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communications (CAERC) Vyusal Gasimli, there is a United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC), the International Court of Justice, and the European Court of Human Rights.

“Two methods can be used to assess the damage caused during the conflict: an assessment of direct losses, which includes an assessment of the real cost of damage caused and an assessment of indirect damage (opportunities and additional benefits lost as a result of the destruction of infrastructure) ... Of the World Bank (in Iraq),” said the head of CAERC.

However, international cases on compensation for damage require many years of discussion and are not always effective, so Azerbaijan should rely both on its capabilities and on applying for loans and other types of financial assistance (assistance from donor countries, etc.).

What are the liberated regions rich in?

The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan reminds that in the occupied territories there are 2 reserves (Basitchay and Garagol) and 4 reserves (Lachinsky, Gubadlinsky, Azerboyu and Dashalty), but during the occupation the flora and fauna of this region were barbarously destroyed. Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions are rich in minerals.

Before the occupation, there were about 167 proven deposits in this zone, including 5 - gold (150.22 tons); 7 - mercury (1787 tons); 2 - copper (3425 thousand tons); 1 - lead (37.3 thousand tons); 1 - zinc (40.4 thousand tons); 1 - coal (8509 thousand tons); 4 - vermiculite (2170 thousand tons); 6 – gypsum; 1 - raw materials for soda production; 12 - colored and decorative stones (obsidian, marbled onyx, jasper, etc.); 10 - building stone; 21 - facing stone; 9 – clay; 20 - cement raw materials; 8 - various types of building stones; 6 - limestone raw materials; 10 – gravel; 4 - building sand; 1 – perlite; 8 - pumice - volcanic ash; 16 - underground deposits of fresh, and 11 - mineral waters.

These resources were plundered.

According to Azerkosmos OJSC and other open sources, the Armenian occupants caused significant damage to the ecosystem as a result of the plundering of the Vejnali gold deposits in the Zangilan region, the Soyudlu gold deposit in the Kelbajar region and the Mehman polymetal deposit in the Aghdara region (this area is still controlled by Armenian.) For example, gold was illegally used for the manufacture of Franck Muller watches (the brand belongs to a representative of Armenian nationality). The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Armenia attracted private companies from Great Britain, USA, RF, Australia to these deposits in violation of international law.

Before the occupation (according to the Geological Information Fund of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources), there were: in the Agdam region - 15 deposits (mainly for the construction sector plus fresh water sources); in Jabrayil - 26 deposits (also building materials and water sources); in Fizuli - 6 deposits (stone-cube and fresh water); in Gubadli region - 11 deposits (building materials and fresh water); in Lachin - 40 deposits (mercury over 1,000 tons, pumice, building materials, clay, mineral water); in Kelbajar - 34 deposits (gold, silver, copper, mercury, perlite, clay, etc.); in Zangilan - 11 deposits (including 6.5 tons of gold in Vejnali and 3 thousand tons of copper, limestone); in Shusha - facing stone, mineral water, clay and building materials.

Using the new images from the Azerkosmos satellite, topographic maps of the liberated territories will be updated; maps of the environment and natural resources will be prepared. According to economist, UNEC professor Elshad Mammadov, agriculture can be revived in the liberated territories using high technologies, and the region's rich water resources are a huge help for the agricultural sector.

“Over time, but not in a year or two, it will be possible to revive tourism here. In general, all the points need to be calculated, analyzed. The region will only benefit from this,” Mammadov said. It is not yet clear whether Azerbaijan will be able to take advantage of the potential of the liberated territories in the coming years, taking into account not detailed legal aspects, as well as an investment strategy. But I want to believe that over time the country will receive "financial returns" from these rich lands. — 0—'