Karabakh phenomenon and the Russian factor

A Putin"s doctrine in respect of bordering states is running through a severe test. Despite attempts of international forces and the West to oppose the process, the doctrine is in full swing.

Russia"s approach is as follows: former Soviet Republics, except for the Baltic ones, cannot let the West into the region; bordering "friendly" governments must recognize Russia"s privileged status and purchase weapons (this most profitable and corrupt business) from Russia only. When settling a Caspian division Russia has got an access to the Near East.

"Priding himself" upon this year"s three meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ilham Aliyev is preparing for the fourth meeting. V. Putin"s participation in the forthcoming arms exhibition is likely to end with execution of a purchase/sale contract between Azerbaijan and Russia on deliveries of a great quantity of weapons. The Azerbaijani authorities are displaying a keen interest in purchasing $5 billion worth weapons from Russia, President I. Aliyev told a previous meeting. To meet Russia"s most cherished wishes today, Azerbaijan will have to sign a contract on purchasing arms worth several billions dollars. Such a deal is suitable for both corrupt-minded regimes. Note that the $5 billion worth contract was executed on the eve of 2013 elections.

Also, the arms exhibition which is held after 5 years of the pre-term elections in Baku is the right moment for purchase of weapons from Russia, and I. Aliyev will not miss the opportunity. In considering that the western observers to supervise the elections identified I. Aliyev as illegitimate, has to pay off irrespective of country"s need in weapons, whether it meets international standards or not.

In terms of aggravated situation in the region, there are intensive meetings, statements within the framework of information war and demonstration of military force on the threshold of a 25 September meeting. Everybody is aware that Putin"s forthcoming visit to Baku is more in it than meets the eye.

It is the above-mentioned factor that causes the recent anxiety of Pashinyan. The revolutionary euphoria in Armenia has gone, and as the situation in Armenia and around it clears up, his position tends to become increasingly unstable. By arresting former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan some time ago on charges of his complicasy to the 2008 events and seizure of power, Pashinyan has thus violated official and unofficial immunity of former Presidents on the post-Soviet expanse.

That was extraordinary and daring step when adjusted for the fact that Kocharyan is a principal figure, Russia"s mainstay in Armenia. But, at first Pashinyan succeeded to hold out against Russian pressures; however, later he had to release Kocharyan and thus essentially sank in his people"s estimation.

Another serious problem for Pashinyan remains to be concentration of medium- and large-sized business in the hands of Karabakh clan. At present, he faces a secret and tacit confrontation against these circles. It remains uncertain whether revolutionaries would succeed in helping him out of milieu of regional employers patronized by Russia.

Despite Azerbaijani authorities" rhetoric, Pashinyan clearly understands that it is Russia that puts Armenia in danger and that it is Russia to have occupied Azerbaijani lands in due time and created "a belt of security" around Azerbaijan.

Armenians understand that the Azerbaijani authorities could have easily liberated, at least, 25 hectares of occupied lands when adjusted for $138 billion of petrodollars over the past 25 years. But they did nothing to attain this goal but instead budgetary funds of the Defense Ministry were secretly transferred to secret off-shore accounts in London. In receiving their shares from deals with Russia, Azerbaijani authorities struck a heavy blow at country" defence capacity.

It has to be kept in mind that new Armenian authorities are anxious not about Azerbaijan"s warlike rhetoric but Russia"s futility. However, Pashinyan and his new government are still persisting; they are addressing the Armenian diasphora and making various irritative statements to avoid returning occupied lands occupied 25 years ago. In demonstrating allegedly peace-making intentions, Pashinyan sends his son to serve in the army on the frontline while his wife stressed the necessity of alleviating relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

However, all seemingly "peace-loving" steps of the Pashinyan couple aimed vat settling the Karabakh conflict and normalizing relations with Turkey are of declarative, rhetoric nature. The current Armenian developments and Pashinyan son"s serving on the territory of Azerbaijan are far from amicability and none other than encouragement of the Armenian youth to fight in Nagorno Karabakh. So there are great doubts in Armenia"s "goodwill".

It must be understood that N. Pashinyan has come to power as a result of people"s democratic revolution to express the will of the Armenian people. As distinct from authoritarian regimes on the post-Soviet expanse, his fragile power still rests on the will of the nation. N. Pashinyan and his Party demonstrated their adherence to the Eurointegration and adoption of European values.

As distinguished from leaders of authoritarian regimes, he vdoes not destroy the civil society but instead seeks to closely collaborate with representatives of this society. Even better, people experienced in Armenian NGOs aqre represented in his government. These steps of Pashinyan are indicative that he is inclined to reforms. On the other hand, the democracy as system of values is incompatible with occupation.

Attempts of Pashinyan to keep lands having been captured as trophy by "field commanders" Kocharyan and Sarkisyan under the direct support of Russia, revealed the backbone of Pashinyan democracy.

Under the current circumstances Pashinyan lays claims to the democracy and as a beginning he must take two steps: liberate 25-years long occupied regions of Azerbaijan and release Azerbaijani prisoners and hostages in Armenia. Otherwise, Azerbaijan has the right to liberate its lands even with Russia"s blessing. UN Resolutions are to be fulfilled, and it is probable that Azerbaijan will attend the UN General Assembly to make warlike statements.