“Always being a hero is harder than becoming one"

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-  The year  2020 is coming to an end. Considering public opinion, we can say that 2020 will be remembered as a difficult year. How would you assess 2020 for Azerbaijan from a political point of view?

-Except for the positive dynamics of the liberation of a large part of the country's lands from occupation, I must admit that, in general, 2020 was a difficult year for Azerbaijan. It should also be noted here that certain personnel reshuffles and internal party rotations that began in 2019 gave rise to hopes among part of the country's population that the upcoming 2020 will, in a sense, become a year of reforms. And although it is noticeable in society that these are not only hopes and expectations, but also desires and appeals, a series of events that began with early parliamentary elections destroyed these hopes in the future. The ensuing COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, economic downturn, further centralization of governance and further authoritarianization of power have buried these hopes once and for all. But it turned out that a certain energy had accumulated in society, which must have been used. This was manifested in the military tension that began in July and the Azerbaijani-Armenian war that followed. This whole sequence of events will be the subject of discussion and research for a long time. But in any case, 2020 will remain in our history and memory as a year of war. And the main research will focus on this military phenomenon. Because the 44-day war clarified many points necessary for the future development of the Azerbaijani people.

- The year is also remembered as the year of the pandemic. The pandemic has been lasting since throughout the world since the begining of the year.  In particular, in the first days of the special quarantine regime in Azerbaijan, people had irritation against the authorities. Temporary closure of jobs due to the quarantine regime, the allocation of 190 manats to help non-working people and the inability to receive it for those who have the right to do so, protests over the decision not to leave their homes, as well as police violence against people, etc. All this happened after the early parliamentary elections, that is, during the period of society's expectations from the government of reforms. But the pandemic, quarantine, that is, dissatisfaction with the social status, one might say, disappeared. Nobody cares about the quarantine regime, the closure of jobs, the issuance of 190 manats. At least the discontent is not noticeable. What processes and what exactly will 2020 be remembered in the domestic policy of Azerbaijan?

- As I already noted, 2020 will remain in the history of Azerbaijan as a year of war, both in the near and in the distant history. And also because of all the issues we have listed, only in one - in the restoration of the country's territorial integrity - the people were able to realize themselves. But first, let's look at the events in chronological order. The parliamentary elections, as I have already said, destroyed the hopes for reform, and a supreme legislative body was formed in the country, which is not fundamentally different from the previous one. Of course, there are certain differences, but, as I said, they are not fundamental.

For example, the current parliament is more flexible and unprofessional than its predecessor. I do not mean that the previous parliament was superior to the current one, I just want to say that the negative choice, that is, the choice between bad and worse, this time was made in favor of the second (worst). And this manifested itself in relation to all the issues that took place in the country after the so-called elections. As for the pandemic, the attitude of the authorities towards ordinary people showed itself in all its nakedness. Perhaps this statement will be greeted harshly, but I must say: in matters related to the pandemic, we saw a truly inhuman attitude towards the Azerbaijani people. Let me digress here and state that this was nothing new to me. If we add here inability, illiteracy, incompetence, the search for benefits in everything, even in vital matters, then the picture is completely complemented and the available results are evident. The pandemic is in every sense a critical situation, and it showed that in the arsenal of those who govern Azerbaijan, there is nothing but senseless bans, corruption, the desire to get rich, police violence against the people and other similar negative resources that can threaten people even in critical situations. As for the 190 manats given to people as assisstance, this is a topic for a separate discussion. In short, I will say that the attitude towards this assistance in the amount of 190 manats showed that Azerbaijanis no longer rely on the state, accepting it as the property of a handful of people.

- This year, as you said, will also be remembered for the 44-day war of Azerbaijan. This war showed that, despite all the disagreements, the people and authorities in Azerbaijan, if necessary, can unite in the name of national interests. What has this war proved to us and the world?

- The  44-day  wart in Azerbaijan will be studied and discussed for a long time, and today I can say with full confidence that other countries will also turn to it when solving similar problems. From a sociological point of view, the war showed that over the years, attempts to destroy the fundamental values ​​of Azerbaijani society have failed completely. It turned out that Azerbaijanis are not at all timid, compliant, silent, cowardly, as many mistakenly believe, and when they hurt their pride they are able to show their determination, courage and even cruelty. This, in my opinion, is the main conclusion to be drawn from this war, because ignoring these basic values ​​and qualities in building the future model of society will mean failure.

As for the often repeated thesis “the people and the authorities can unite in the name of national issues”, there is some inaccuracy here. The people themselves rallied and, albeit weakly, self-organized in response to the Armenian provocation back in July in Tovuz. At first, the authorities could not see it, then they tried to deny it, and then they united with the people. The union, which had been formed since September 27, began to disintegrate after November 10, as if the roads parted again. In order not to seem unfounded, arguing this, I think it would be appropriate to refer to one of the power resources. According to a poll conducted by the Center for Sociological Research, only 21% of Azerbaijanis speak of an absolute victory. In my opinion, there is no need for a special comment, and the authorities will have to take this into account in their future activities.

As for the military aspect of the war, it is a fact that the Azerbaijani army, from an ordinary soldier to a general, achieved what seemed impossible even theoretically. The Azerbaijani army presented to the world a model of a future technological war and how it should work in real combat conditions. This can also be seen from the many reviews in the world press. The operation to liberate Shusha from occupation will be studied for a long time in military schools of different countries as a rare example of war. Our war also reminded the world of several truths:

- An unjust peace and a forced ceasefire are the paths leading to a new war.

- Territorial integrity is not only a geographic or political issue, for people it is also a matter of pride.

- There is no weak nation, it is just important that every nation has the necessary conditions for the manifestation of its strength.

- During the war, as well as after the war, the authority of the authorities and the president among the people has grown significantly. At the same time, the president's reliance on this authority has increased. What trends can this process create?

- Let's first clarify: not the authorities in general, but Ilham Aliyev, several of his officials and military Generals in the army. Only a visible share of external pressure on the country during the war makes it possible to assess the scale of this pressure. Ilham Aliyev, as head of state and supreme commander in chief, signed a very responsible and risky decision. Let us not forget that this could also have extremely dire consequences, and then it would not be easy to avoid historical responsibility.

No one belittles the significance of the step he has taken and cannot belittle, but the war is over, and now we are entering the construction phase. And the successes, and pain, and certain setbacks of the war will soon fade into the background, but our irrecoverable losses will remain in the memory - our compatriots who became martyrs.

Personally, I consider the signing of the statement on November 10 as a failure and, as a result, the introduction of Russian "peacekeepers" into the country, but the fact is that the war turned the Azerbaijani people into a winner, and such a people cannot be governed as before. For this reason, the future stage can only be successful if the management concept changes radically. The concept of this type of state must change because society is no longer the same.

In such conditions, the fate of the political capital he earned will depend on the steps that Ilham Aliyev will take. In other words, what will Ilham Aliyev choose - to be the president of corrupt thieves or the president of the victorious people. If he chooses the second, then it will be easier for him to get rid of the first. The steps taken by the president, relying on the support of the people, are not discussed, provided that these steps also serve the interests of the people. So now everything will depend on the choice of Ilham Aliyev, and this choice will determine the future of both him and the country. This will be a stage of development and prosperity for the country, and for Ilham Aliyev, an opportunity to remain a hero. Being a hero is always more difficult than becoming one.

- This year  there was also a dialogue between the authorities and political parties. Only one PFPA political party does not participate in these dialogues, and we can say that it was left alone. What will be the result of these dialogues? What will these dialogues give to the political life of Azerbaijan?

- Political dialogue is always necessary for any society, but, unfortunately, the lack of such experience in Azerbaijan is manifested in the current process. Some statements by officials about meetings and discussions with the opposition not only do not lend credibility to this process, but, on the contrary, undermine it. I hope the only reason is inexperience. The power-opposition dialogue can be successful only when there is public interest and public support for it. In the meantime, they are not visible. So let's wait and hope that the contacts we have begun will enter the format of a political dialogue and, first of all, the subjects and goals of the dialogue will be determined, the process will become transparent.

- How will 2020 be remembered in Azerbaijan's foreign policy? Have Azerbaijan's relations with the West entered a new stage? At the same time, we very often come across statements about a joint Azerbaijani-Turkish Confederation. We have witnessed the rapprochement between Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia and at the same time faced with statements about the development of the "six" platform in the region. At the same time, in 2020, the Russian army entered the territory of Azerbaijan as a peacekeeping mission. What exactly does the Azerbaijan-Russia-Turkey rapprochement promise to Azerbaijan-West relations?

- 2020 can also be called a turning point in the country's foreign policy. This turn was dictated, first of all, by the events associated with the 44-day war. The 30-year activity of the OSCE Minsk Group on the peace process can be considered de facto completed. Azerbaijan has significantly moved away from the West. True, such trends have already existed, but in 2020 this process reached its climax. Of course, it would be wrong to indicate here as a reason only our war for Karabakh. This war was more of a result than a cause. The reasons, however, are deeper. The main reason is the reformatting of global politics. The collapse of the geopolitical structure, the foundation of which was laid after 1945 and collapsed after the collapse of the USSR, is coming to an end. Today we are moving into a new global world, and new rules and a new configuration are being formed for it. It turns out that now global competition is mainly for control over communications and transport corridors, and it will only intensify.

We are unlucky in this sense, because we are part of the Extended Middle East, a major competitive region. In this struggle, there are those who see us as a side and those who see us as competitors and even those who want to take control. Therefore, I would say that at the present stage it will not only be easy, but also impossible to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy course, which is called balanced. We will need to define our relationship with Russia, Turkey and Iran, the 3 major powers in the region.

In this matter, I definitely see Turkey, which is our natural ally, and Israel as a partner. On the other hand, Russia is already in Azerbaijan with its army and is trying to increase its influence day after day. I think that in order to resist this, we need to be decisive on two issues: to show at every step that we are the masters of our country, and to expand military-political cooperation with Turkey. As for the prospects for relations with the West, the issue here is more complicated, and there is at least one question that is not yet clear to us: the West is France, pursuing a policy against us, it is Germany demonstrating neutrality, expressing support for Great Britain or demonstrating silence United States?

- And, finally, what processes can occur in the foreign and domestic policy of Azerbaijan in 2021, if you look at the results of 2020?

- In countries such as Azerbaijan, foreign and domestic policies are closely related to each other. I confess that I am not particularly optimistic about domestic politics, because at the upcoming stage we will face a very complex geopolitical whirlpool. Overall, I do not expect 2021 to be a comfortable and calm year. Unfortunately, I must say that we do not rule out that the tension in the region where we are, that is, in the greater Central Asia (Böyük Orta Doğuda), will increase and even turn into military conflicts.

This will have a direct impact on us, since, on the one hand, Russia sees the territory of Azerbaijan as the main corridor for access to the Middle East, and Moscow's opponents consider our region the best place to contain it. And this is a serious threat not only to our sovereignty, but also to stability in the region as a whole. If Moscow succeeds in achieving a change of power in Armenia, this will further increase the risks. Now I think that Azerbaijan should not be interested in Pashinyan's departure. At least because, despite the war, he is the only politician in Armenia with whom one can negotiate.

In the struggle for power in Armenia, both sides - the West and Russia - see the Armenian diaspora in their countries as the main means of influencing this country. The presence of such internal competition among Armenians means additional room for maneuver for us. Therefore, all issues, from relations with Armenia to protection from the influence of global political processes, must be seriously analyzed and a well-grounded foreign policy strategy developed.

In domestic politics, as I said above, if you achieve real political dialogue, real unity between people and power and start large-scale reforms, then 2021, which is expected to be the year of a deep economic crisis, can be spent less painful for the country and society. ... It would also mark the beginning of sustainable development. Whether this happens or not will probably depend on the choice of the government, because the real mechanisms today are actually only under its control. Whether this happens or not will likely depend on the government's choice.