Azerbaijan discusses Putin's position on Karabakh

Azerbaijan watched a four-hour speech of Vladimir Putin on television awaiting an answer from the Russian president to questions about Karabakh. The TASS journalist asked the Russian President a detailed question, saying that Azerbaijan demanding the complete withdrawal of Armenian troops from Karabakh refers to the fourth paragraph of the Statement of November 10, which says, "The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces." The Armenians refer to the first point, based on which, after the signing of the document, the parties "stop at their positions." The journalist stressed that Vladimir Putin "as a co-author of the document" could settle the point in the dispute between Yerevan and Baku.

Petersburg analyst Vugar Ismayilov drew attention to the fact that Putin did not mention the OSCE Minsk Group, effectively sending it into oblivion. In his post on Facebook, Ismayilov emphasizes the words of Putin, who said that from an international legal point of view, all these territories are an integral part of the Republic of Azerbaijan. “Armenia did not recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh; therefore, bearing in mind this circumstance, Nagorno-Karabakh itself from the point of view of international law is also Azerbaijan.

The status of Nagorno-Karabakh should remain unchanged, transferred to the future, provided that there is an opportunity for communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia through the Lachin corridor,” the Russian president added.

Ismailov notes the position of the Russian Federation: the status of Karabakh can be changed, if necessary, in the future. If it does not appear, then it will remain so, but there is a position of Azerbaijan regarding its territory. Karabakh is Azerbaijan, and it will not have a status.

“There are no big contradictions between the positions of the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan. Regarding the present, the positions of both countries are the same - Karabakh is Azerbaijan. The difference in positions concerns only the future. Putin believes that in the future the status can be changed, if necessary. Azerbaijan believes that the status will not be changed in the future either. This is all that distinguishes the positions of the two countries on Karabakh, Ismailov believes.

Analyst Shahin Jafarli highlights the fundamental antagonistic positions of Russia and Azerbaijan. In an article published in pressklub.az, he draws attention to the main question that worries Azerbaijanis: When will the Armenian Armed Forces be withdrawn from Karabakh?

The fourth paragraph of the Statement refers to the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Karabakh in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces. This point was understood in Azerbaijan as an indication of the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces from the region. The Azerbaijani authorities at the official level did not clarify this point, and did not say anything about the withdrawal of armed Armenians from Karabakh. Now it follows from Putin's words that the Armenian detachments will remain in the Russian-controlled part of Karabakh because Putin refers not to the fourth, but to the first point of the Statement. It says, “From 00:00 on November 10, 2020, a ceasefire comes, henceforth, the Azerbaijan Republic and the Armenian Republic, called the "parties", remain in their current positions.

Jafarli asks, “If there is no indication of the date of the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces from Azerbaijan, then how can we talk about the end of the Karabakh conflict?”

The analyst comments on Putin's words about the immutability (for now!) of the status quo of Karabakh, recalling the statement of I. Aliyev, who sent the status quo to hell, and the absence of a mention of the status of NK in the Statement. Since Putin spoke about the status for Karabakh, it means that this topic is not closed; he simply does not consider it necessary to resolve this issue now.

Why? Because having decided with the status, the problem will close, and Russia does not want to end the Karabakh conflict, because then there will not be any need for Russia and its army in the region.

Regarding Putin's statement on the belonging of Karabakh to Azerbaijan in accordance with international law, Jafarli reminds the same of Putin's assurances on Georgian national autonomies. There are risks for us, and therefore Azerbaijan in relations with Russia must behave as carefully as possible so as not to face unwanted surprises.

“Moscow has become the only moderator and arbiter in Karabakh. It is clear that official Baku did not have time for a detailed discussion on the content of the prepared Statement, as on the eve of an Azerbaijani soldier shot down a Russian helicopter in the sky of Armenia, and Russia began to send large consignments of weapons to Yerevan," Jafarli recalled.

Economics professor Gubad Ibadoglu posted on Facebook his attitude to Putin's speech. Gubad Ibadoglu considers the transfer of the part of the president's speech on international law and invariability of the status of Karabakh to the future is a threat to Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“Putin wants to say that the future of Karabakh depends on behavior of Baku and Yerevan. The introduction of the Russian Armed Forces into Karabakh on November 10 made the two countries completely dependent on Moscow."  Gubadoglu proposes steps to the Azerbaijani leadership to get out of unwanted addiction.

1. Strengthening relations with Turkey in all spheres, especially in the military.

2. More rational use of financial and human resources.

3. To preserve and strengthen the unity of the people with the authorities created during the war.

This requires the signing an Azerbaijani-Turkish allied agreement, up to the level of a military alliance, conducting real cardinal and consistent economic reforms to bring Azerbaijan to a level that exceeds the indicators of the enemy. The reform package should include education and new technologies. To form a command of power that arouses popular confidence. To clear the pyramid of power, the courts, the prosecutor's office, the police, the entire justice system from corruption, divide power from business, allow opposition to the Milli Mejlis, free civil society from the shackles, and effectively fight unemployment and poverty, Ibadoglu suggests.

It is useful to add a fragment of an article by journalist Krivosheyev from the Moscow-based Kommersant to the opinion of Azerbaijani analysts: the answer of the Russian president cannot be called clear and unambiguous, but the Armenian side will rather like it than the Azerbaijani side. Having made an obligatory reservation that the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan under international law, he noted that the situation is "more complicated than simple international legal postulates." According to Vladimir Putin, in the 1990s, Armenians "took up arms, defending their lives and dignity."

Moving on to the last and main part of the question, the Russian President mentioned only the first point of the agreement to which the Armenians refer. “The parties had to stand on the positions they remained on the day the statement was signed,” he said, without commenting on the contradiction with the fourth paragraph. Perhaps, in this way, the Russian president is giving a signal to Baku that attempts to occupy new territories, citing the need for the withdrawal of Armenian troops, will not work for the Azerbaijani side, and the only reason to reconsider the new status quo may be “infrastructure difficulties”, which in fact there is.-0-