Kiev has attracted the Ankara-Baku tandem to dialogue with Moscow

The question is not that the parties exchanged experience and views on the current state of the conflicts, but that in both cases Russia is the leading player in the conflicts: in the first case, as the party that carried out the aggression and supports separatism, and in the second, it once supported the Armenian aggression and separatism, but changed its role in the Karabakh conflict, taking as a basis the priority of interaction and cooperation with Azerbaijan. What is extraordinary in this case is that for Russia an alliance with “non-aligned” Azerbaijan has become more attractive than coexistence with Armenia, an ally in the CSTO, the Customs Union, and the EurAsEC.

This should also include the phenomenal allied relations between Russia and Turkey, which have moved from the category of eternal enemies to the category of colleagues capable of finding common ground at the intersection of the interests of the West and Russia. Another such example was the interaction of the parties during the second Karabakh war and later - in the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Zelensky expects that Ankara has every chance to become a bridge between Kiev and Moscow in the context of special Russian-Turkish relations. Zelensky in September 2021 had already approached Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a request to mediate with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the release of 450 Ukrainian citizens, including Crimean Tatars.

Erdogan volunteered to participate in mediation, not only in the issue of the release of citizens of Ukraine, but also in the broader context of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Last month the Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said that Turkey has good relations with both Russia and Ukraine, while Ankara "does not approve or support any conflict between the two countries." Turkey, according to Kalin, is trying to “fulfill its task of reducing tensions.” He further noted that many Western countries do not have constructive direct relations with Russia, but “Turkey has this special position.” So if both sides are positively, the Turkish president "can take a constructive step towards de-escalation by organizing a meeting between Putin and Zelensky."

 Taking into  account the positive results of the Erdogan-Aliyev tandem in contacts with Putin, Zelensky apparently decided to strengthen the Turkish peacekeeping mission, the Azerbaijani one. On November 17, he invited Erdogan to hold the 10th anniversary meeting of the High-Level Strategic Council in Kiev in February, and on December 14 he invited Aliyev to take part in the event, formalizing it as a jubilee meeting on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Turkey and Azerbaijan.

In Kiev, by signing the final declaration, Zelensky and Aliyev specifically confirmed their readiness to provide mutual support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the two states within internationally recognized borders, joint counteraction to hybrid threats, and the desire to ensure peace and stability in the Black Sea-Caspian region and beyond.

Thus, we can assume that the tandem actions of the Baku-Ankara link in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis will develop on the basis of the principle of the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

It seems that this line of mediation has a chance, since Moscow is no less interested in overcoming the crisis with Ukraine, but not under Western pressure, but with the participation of third Eurasian parties. The Kremlin accepted the platform of Erdogan and Aliyev on the peaceful Caucasus “3 + 3”. The Russian Foreign Ministry also took on mediation to eliminate the age-old enmity between Armenia and Turkey. On both issues, careful stakeholder consultations have already taken place in Moscow.

On December 3, Erdogan called Putin and they spoke about Ukraine. The Kremlin emphasized that during the discussion of the Donbass issue, the “importance of full and strict compliance with the Minsk Package of Measures of 2015 and other agreements, including in the Normandy format,” was noted.

Two days before the Erdogan-Putin conversation, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Erdogan could act as a mediator in Russian-Ukrainian relations, but under certain conditions. "If Erdogan can use his influence to induce Kiev to start fulfilling its obligations - under the Minsk package of measures, the Paris agreements - this can only be welcomed."