State Committee of Statistics figures should not be politicized

Yesterday's enlarged meeting of the Cabinet of Azerbaijan President, assessing the socio-economic development of Azerbaijan in 2012, called it a success in every way and gives us hope for a brighter future. But is it really?

According to the chairman of the Center for Economic Research (CER), doctor of economic sciences Gubad Ibadoglu the vast presidential speech two "moments of truth" - an assertion that the foreign exchange reserves have increased over the year to 46 billion, and the fact that Armenia is going through, to say the least better economic times.

Scientists believe the statement of Ilham Aliyev about the level of inflation (1.1% per year) fantastic, because in reality (on alternative estimates by CER), it was 9.92%, and with food inflation it at all was at the level of 18%. "We are all consumers. If we consider that most of the population does not belong to the category of the rich and middle class, and spends more than two-thirds of income on food, it turns out that people's savings eaten up by higher prices. If the impact on inflation even rumors about the growth of salaries and pensions of teachers, it is a serious sign of monopoly and price outrage "- he says.

The fact that last year the volume of investments was $ 22 billion, is also not an indication of improvement in the economic situation in general, because even according to official figures, more than two-thirds of them - state capital injections. In Azerbaijan, the practice of development of investment projects, "eat" up to 40% of the annual budget, is that the budget and public businesses throughout the year to spend two-thirds of the allocated funds, in December of the same mode Abraham - the other third, which is impossible to master. That is, the money is actually retired. As an example, last year, the largest building in Baku - plant of metal structures named after Heydar Aliyev, the Concert Complex Baku Crystal Hall, hotel and office complexes Gafgaz Baku City Hotel and Residences, JW Marriott Absheron and Four Seasons. In addition, they commissioned new educational buildings and the Diplomatic Academy of the local branch of Moscow State University, as well as a military hospital of the Military Academy of the Ministry of National Security. According to official figures, between January and December 2012 from all sources in the fixed capital was invested 12.6 billion manats, while the done construction work was at $ 7.6 bn. According to official data, 77.2% (9.7 bn) of fixed assets were domestic investment, an increase of 24% compared to last year.

According to the president of the country, in Azerbaijan, ostensibly for the poor does not include the 7.6% of the population, as in the past year, and 6%, and a few years of this layer would not be at all. If you believe the statement, it appears that we live better than in the U.S., where 15.2% of the population live below the subsistence level, and in the Netherlands, where 14% of the poor. According to the scientist, the State Statistics Committee said so, as required by the political power, so the objective numbers to change the method of calculation.

Ibadoglu noted that the economic prosperity of the country where the biggest debtor is family and house management is impossible. According to official figures, the proportion of individuals in the loan portfolio is more than one-third (33.6%). This is 21.7% more than last year, that is, every third family is unable to purchase for cash valuables and household equipment.

The expert considers it appropriate to recall about two important inconsistencies in the words of Ilham Aliyev. First, why the decline in industrial production (2.3%) should be equal to the fall in oil production, if the head of state annually receives dozens of companies, "providing" for 10 years, 1.2 million jobs? Secondly, last year, the largest discrepancy was observed by the State Statistics Committee myth-making in the agricultural sector. On the one hand the alleged production of agricultural products is growing, and the country is 100% food-safety, on the other hand, increasing food imports. According to official data on December 1, the production of crops (except melons, beets, and cotton) increased by 5.8%, the production of animal products - by 5.5%. But according to the State Customs Committee, compared to January-November 2011, the last year has increased imports of wheat (24.1%), animal and vegetable fats (21%), and butter (17.5%). In addition, blossomed delivery of fruits and vegetables (13.28%) and sugar (10.4%), although Imishli specialized factory report exports.

Azerbaijan has already spent more than $ 50 billion of the $ 200 billion of SOFAR-calculated and predicted incomes from oil. If we continue annually to scatter almost $10 bn annually in an unfounded way to create a background of stability, the future generation of the country will receive nothing from this. We need to be not opportunists, but business executives, responsible for the fate of the nation - scientists believe. - 17A-