A new tactical format for old plan

It is worth pointing out that no transparency and plain text have so far been in the history of Turkish-American relations till recent visit of President Erdogan. A few days before, the recent US national security adviser O’Brien declared that S-400 plays a key role both in bilateral relations and contacts between the parties. That became apparent in the statements of the two Presidents at press-conferences: “Acquisition of S-400 by Turkey offers great difficulties. The issues are and will be discussed in future, and I believe we are sure to solve them. We’ve agreed upon the work of our Foreign Ministers and our national security advisers on the subject of S-400" (Donald Trump).

"We are in position to cope with S-400 и F-35 issues on the basis of dialogue only. I told President that if offered, we can purchase Patriots" (Recep Tayip Erdogan).

It should be borne in mind that Washington made no secret of what is known to Allah and Russia. Thus, a philosophy of relations Ankara-Washington- Moscow within the framework of actions in Syria lies in “Russia’s ultimate burying into the issue”. This is a basic paradigm, and in spite of the fact that Russia gave Turkey everything it wanted within the framework of the said paradigm. Ankara is in range of its former ally - Washington.

Worthy of note is the fact that a date of a meeting between Trump and Erdogan has been known a month and a half before. Innumerable quantities of scenarios have so far been written over this month and a half. Congress adopted a bill on “Armenian genocide” to thus pressure Turkey; a letter came from Donald Trump to his Turkish counterpart to inform about PYD/YPG discussions, etc. Does it have any bearing on the agenda of the meeting Trump-Erdogan?  It is contrary to the agenda of the meeting: Erdogan was invited to meet with five senators opposing Turkey. Note that some items face difficulties when being put on the agenda of Senate in the nearest future. It goes without saying?

Beyond any doubt, no S-400 issue will be solved straight after the meeting, and Turkey will turn to F-35 program and “Patriot” missiles will be purchased. Please, make a point of phrases like ministers, meetings, we agreed to discuss issues, etc. In other words, it is talked about time for old ally in an effort “to continue a dialogue”.

What is Russia’s stand on the issue? What is Russia going to do and what can it do?

During the meeting in Washington the Kremlin announced that Russia had started constructing a helibase in the north of Syria. This is none other than a symbolic message to Turkey. In so doing, Moscow says that Kurdish groupings in Syria will henceforth be supported by the Kremlin. Suffice it remember that in October 1998, under pressures of Turkey, a head of the PKK terrorist organization was taken from Kamyshly region where he hid himself, and from there to Moscow.

It is important to note that the Russia-backed Syrian army is expected to speed up military operations in Idlib; however, Turkey opposes it again: President Erdogan is going to fly to Moscow or Sochi, and short-lived ceasefire will be achieved. This intimate game between the trio (Ankara-Washington-Moscow) will last for 2 months together with 2-3 new items in the agenda.

In-depth Turkish state (state within the state) is a determinant in the processes above.