Why Arab Spring didn"t come to the former Soviet Union?

More than a year after the first stirrings of the Arab Spring, there is a strong desire for democracy in Central Asia and the Caucasus as many in the region believe democracy is the best form of government, according to several international watchdogs.

The series of rallies in Russia and Azerbaijan that took place last spring didn't last long. Meanwhile, the latest reports from Freedom House, Human Rights Watch and other organizations indicate that the human rights records of Central Asia and Caucasus' dictatorships have deteriorated in past years.

What lessons from the Arab Spring are most useful and applicable to the post-Soviet democracy?

For Joshua Foust, a fellow at the Washington-DC based American Security Project, who is also a National Security Columnist for PBS Need to Know and editor of registan.net, says there are several reasons the Arab Spring didn't come to the former Soviet Union (FSU).

“Probably the biggest reason is that there aren’t the same sorts of social connections between the former Soviet Union states and the Arab states as there are between Arab States. It's easier for revolutionary ideas to spread when everyone speaks a similar language and has some knowledge of each other’s recent history. That wasn't true in the FSU”, he said in an interview with TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent.

At the same time, he added, “you don't see quite the same social currents in the FSU -- while protests in places like Baku and Zhanaozen were large and got a lot of attention, they didn't expand into country- wide movements… So you didn't have the same sort of build-up to effect change”.

Speaking about the human rights situation in the FSU, Mr. Foust said, “Maybe it [the deterioration] has to do with the aging of the dictators that have run those countries post-Independence - they're older, as are their inner circle, so they're less inclined to deal with the difficulty and argument that comes from an open society”. “But I don't think there's a single explanation for it”, he added.

Asked can the youth movements change the situation”, he said, youth movements might have a chance [to change things] if they can get organized and build up support outside of the youth populations.

“Regimes don't seem to shy away from beating students in the streets, but very few beat up grandmothers”. While talking about US democracy promotion efforts in post-Soviet dictatorships, the first question that comes to mind is that, would such efforts disrupt Washington's relationships with such governments?

“I think you see US government-funded or programmed democracy promotion stall when it conflicts with other US goals in the region. Democracy is a nice goal, but sometimes other matters (primarily security) override the desire for a democratic government”, said Mr. Foust.

“It's not fair or happy, but that's how the white house seems to act, regardless of the president”, he added.