A large scale war is not in the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan

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- Avaz bey, there is tension again on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Again the battle, again the casualties. What is happening between Azerbaijan and Armenia? Can a serious war start again? Or, as in the April 2016 battles, will these battles subside in a few days?

- This is the second incident on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. This is not interesting for the Azerbaijani side in the current situation. Because Azerbaijan has strengthened its posts there and controls those posts. And it thinks that if there was any incident in the area, Armenia could use it and appeal to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). It was already clear that Armenia took this opportunity.

I do not believe that a large-scale war will break out on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Even if Azerbaijan tries to continue, the Armenian side will withdraw. Because the Armenian side understood that these provocations did not benefit it. In fact, both the CSTO has put Armenia in a bad position, and many in the country know that Pashinyan did not do the right thing. Because the Armenian community does not want any changes on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border.

Apparently, Russia has already sent a message to both sides that the conflict must end. In fact, Azerbaijan could benefit from the fact that what happened on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border reached the international level. Because all the existing institutions and states have expressed their views on this issue and did not put Azerbaijan in a desperate situation. That is, Azerbaijan did not lose in this matter.

- What prompted the start of these battles?

- The Armenian side, in fact, created a provocation to start fighting by opening fire on a military vehicle, which was daily controlling Azerbaijani posts. The Azerbaijani side responded adequately. The shooting escalated.

- There has been no progress in the talks for a long time, and the leaders of the two countries have been talking to each other in the language of war threats since last year. Are these the result of that rhetoric, or are there other issues we do not know behind the scenes?

- There is no progress. The interested party in the absence of progress is the opponent. The opponent is interested in withdrawing from the negotiating table under various pretexts. We see an example of this from May 2018. Although, in fact, since 2016, Armenia has left the negotiation process. After 2018, that is, after Pashinyan came to power, there are almost various evasions from the talks. It is also felt that the new leadership is not interested in real negotiations and is trying to show that there is some progress in these negotiations by exaggerating amnesty or other issues.

Of course, the rhetoric inside Azerbaijan and Armenia also affects the incidents. This military rhetoric will always be in Azerbaijan. This rhetoric will continue as long as Azerbaijan does not see real peace in resolving this conflict. Rhetoric in Armenia is not peaceful either. These skirmishes between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are a clear example of this rhetoric. Armenia uses this rhetoric more to inflame the conflict.

- Where does Russia stand on this issue? Russia will not be unaware of the events in the region. Do you think everything that happened was agreed with Russia?

- If Russia could respond positively to Armenia in the CSTO, then we could probably say that Russia was behind this incident. However, it seemed that Russia could not make a decision in the CSTO that could support Armenia. Maybe Russia has a bilateral policy here. He both curtsies to Azerbaijan and wants to chasten Pashinyan. However, Russia's move runs the risk of anger at the free-thinking, democratic people in power in Armenia in general. If Russia plays like this, it is very risky. Russia does not seriously help Azerbaijan. On the contrary, this incident has led to an increase in internal tensions in Azerbaijan, as well as the strengthening of military rhetoric. If Russia did that, it is playing a very wrong and risky game. Russia will not take advantage of it here. Russia has simply brought the conflict under its control to the attention of an international audience. Russia probably would not want an ineffective incident here. If there was a well-calculated result, Russia would win here. We could then say that yes, it is in Russia's direct interest.

- For a long time, there were rumors that the battles would start, although it was not official. Even if we believe what was said, the battles should have started sooner, but the pandemic delayed it. What information do you have about this?

- Although military rhetoric is strong on both sides, both sides are not interested in starting a serious war, especially on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. A serious battle on the border would more or less be on the Armenian side to involve the CSTO in this issue. Or rather, to check its course. It saw that this did not happen. But in general, it is not in their interest. Therefore, the assumption that a serious war could take place was wrong. Only the parties can test the rhetoric to test their societies, to test their attitude to the conflict again. It is possible that this was necessary to show the threat of a certain foreign enemy after Pashinyan received Gagik Sarukyan's mandate at home. The fact that the Armenian police and a friend of Pashinyan are leading these processes shows that there are some doubts.

Azerbaijan tried to show its calm image during the pandemic. It even invested in the World Health Organization at the international level. It tried to show that there was a bit of calm during the pandemic. Azerbaijan did not seem so interested in this issue.

- The lands of Azerbaijan are under occupation and it has been waiting for years for the peaceful liberation of its lands from occupation. But negotiations do not work. In this case, what should have been done to liberate Azerbaijani lands from occupation? What steps do you think should have been taken to liberate the lands from occupation?

- Azerbaijani lands have been under occupation for 28 years. It is unknown how long this occupation will last. The occupation of these lands is simply due to the weakness of the government in Azerbaijan and its inability to unite the people. It is very difficult to easily liberate the land from occupation. The government understands that something can be easily lost but it is very difficult to get it back. Therefore, the government takes these risks into account and understands that although military rhetoric and the spirit of war must be maintained in society, albeit so-called, it does not risk withdrawing from the negotiations. Because if it withdraws from the talks, it means that Azerbaijan wants to gain what it lost by force. However, the real possibilities of obtaining it by force are very limited. Therefore, the government must conduct the negotiation process very professionally and seriously. International pressure on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh must continue. The government knows and sees the logical sequence of this. The Azerbaijani government is also working to dispel all of Armenia's arguments in the international arena and thinks that it can show the international community that Armenia cannot bear the burden of the occupied territories. The attitude of international organizations and states to Armenia is no longer the same. They understand that if a country wants to live together peacefully within the framework of the European Union's Eastern Partnership, it cannot occupy the territory of a member state of the same organization. This fact will cause Armenia many problems. At some point, certain political forces or certain sections of the population in Armenia will have an idea to get rid of the burden of Karabakh. Negotiations are inevitable for them as well.