(Interview with the head of the "East-West" research center)
Q: What impact could have the events in Turkey in Azerbaijan in an election year?
A: What is happening in Turkey, will certainly have an impact on Azerbaijan because of the proximity of the two countries on national, moral, economic, historical and political issues.
There were attempts to hold rallies in Azerbaijan in support of protests in Turkey, and Azerbaijan are widely reported in the press. This activates the socio-political processes in Azerbaijan. The principle "One nation - two states" is not accidental.
Resistance of demonstrators to authorities in Turkey can be a model for the Azerbaijani society. Another factor is active participation of young Azerbaijanis studying in Turkey in demonstrations.
Q: Is it possible to compare the “Turkish Spring” with the "Arab Spring"?
Answer: I think not, since Turkey differs from other countries by its parameters which faced the "Arab revolution". What is happening in Turkey has its own specific problems. This is the result of a split in society because of pressure from Islamists, the secular part of society that has lasted for more than 10 years.
Turkey has a long history of government, history, and the state thinking. None of the Arab countries, where there was a revolution, has such experience. In addition, the influence of radical religious trends in the Arab countries was very strong.
However, I am sure that the power in Turkey, despite the mistakes in domestic and foreign policy, has not the feeling of reality. There are great differences in the power. We have seen a radical and uncompromising position of Prime Minister Erdogan, but the position of President Gul is more loyal. Finally, we have witnessed an apology of the Deputy Prime Minister, Bulent Arinca.
Q: In the case if they overthrow Erdogan, what changes may be in the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations?
A: Theoretically, radical changes are expected. Regardless of who is in power , the relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey are always close and strong.
However, in recent years, relations between Baku and Ankara were cool. From the publications of "Wikileaks" became clear critical position of the Turkish authorities against the Azerbaijani government and vice versa.
Q: What is the impact of the political crisis in the country on the economy of Turkey?
A: The influence was very serious. Due to favorable loan rates, Turkey has just been included by international organizations in the list of countries favorable for business. It was a good factor for the development of the investment climate in Turkey and created a guarantee for stable and dynamic development of the economy. However, now that image has been broken. Almost 80% of Turkey's economy and 90% of turnover is concentrated in Istanbul.
Strike was caused to the Turkish companies in the securities market. Investment guarantees of Turkey is significantly weakened. These events have had a negative impact on Turkey's position in the global market.
Q: Will the events in Turkey cause changes in the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations?
A: Any changes will impact negatively the Armenian-Turkish relations and Turkey's role in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. A month ago, Turkey was the leading country in the region, but now it is in question. Speaking in Washington, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian criticized Turkey. International public opinion is also against Turkey, and its image was severely damaged. Azerbaijan should take into account all of this, in order not to be alone.
Question: Is there a “foreign track” in these events?
A: I think that the search for such traces, both within the country and outside is an attempt of Ankara to shift his blame on others. Attempts to put the blame their opponents, accusing them of corruption, betrayal, collaboration with foreign powers are not serious. The reasons for the incident should be found within the country, and the policy of the ruling party.-16В-
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