Paul Goble: Russia itself repels Azerbaijan

The attempts to solve the problem of migration by police raids and pogroms is absolutely wrong,  similar attempts in Russia will not bring good results, well-known American expert on the former Soviet Union, Professor at the Institute of World Politics, Paul Goble, commented in an interview with

"Rosbalt."

"The cause of the tension is not only discontent of the Russians with the criminal activity discontent of some migrants, but in a sudden change in the ethnic composition of major Russian cities. The way Russia is trying to solve the problem of migrants is completely unacceptable. Pogroms and even police raids do not solve the problem. Everything has to be within the law," he said.

"To be influential the country should have three things: a strong economy, reliable security, and an attractive image. Russia has none of these. However, the Kremlin is trying to impose its will on former satellites. A clear example is how Russia is ignoring statements by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the events in Birylovo; in fact, just repelling Baku from Moscow. Another example: If Moscow did not so openly put pressure on Kiev, the Ukraine would agree to a closer integration with Russia," said the expert.

Goble also believes that there is a trend of Islamization in Russia, and if the situation does not change. "There is a high probability that it will happen is due to three factors. There is the European level of birth rate among Russians and the African death rate among the male population.

At the same ethnic Muslims today comprise between 21 to 23 million (15%) of the 144 million population of Russia, and their number is growing rapidly. Thus, the Russian Muslim woman gives birth to an average of 2.3 children, while the Russian woman gives birth to an average of 1.4 children. Another factor that significantly increases the proportion of Muslims in Russia is the migration from Central Asia," said Goble.

If this continues, there will be global change in the geopolitical system of the world, more significant than the collapse of the communist system. For a thousand years Russia has been perceived as a Christian country, he added.

Goble does not believe that such a change does not suit the United States.

The United States has very good relations with many Muslim countries. It all depends on what kind of Muslims will come to power in Russia. If there will be people like the Tatar Muslims who practice a generally tolerant form of Islam, it may be perfectly acceptable to the West. If, however, the Dagestani Wahhabis come to power in Russia, the West is unlikely to welcome it, said Paul Goble. -02D-