( TURAN’s Washington, DC correspondent discussed the recent tensions between Iran andAzerbaijan with Jon Chicky, a military member of the faculty of the US National War College)Alakbar Raufoglu.
Q. As the tension between Iran and Azerbaijan escalates rapidly, two central questions stick in the mind: Is Azerbaijan really becoming the area of confrontation between big Israel and Iran? And what are the "red lines" here for Azerbaijani diplomacy?
A. First, I would like to remind your readers that my views presented in this interview are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the United States Government. I believe that Azerbaijan is not directly an area of confrontation between Israel and Iran. However, the current situation is indicative of the complex foreign policy Azerbaijan must pursue given the nation's political geography. Foreign Minister Mammadyarov a few years ago metaphorically described Azerbaijan's foreign policy as, “walking a tightrope." This tightrope descriptor is apt in the case of the triangular relationship between Azerbaijan, Iran and Israel. Azerbaijan has interests in both countries but they are not the same interests and therefore, Azerbaijan's approaches to both Iran and Israel are very different. That being said, it is clear that the relationship between Iran and Israel is adversarial. Azerbaijan's leadership is well aware of this and proceeds cautiously in its diplomatic activities with both Israel and Iran. As for so-called "red lines," clearly it will be difficult for Azerbaijan’s leadership to accept acts of violence committed on its territory (here I am talking about areas other than Mountainous Karabagh and the occupied districts) by a foreign actor. The question concerning how Azerbaijan may respond depends on the strategic context and how it employs its elements of statecraft.
Q. What if Iran decides to “punish” Azerbaijan, for example, attack the oil-gas facility, if the tension escalates further?
A. Hypothetically, this could be a possibility but only in an extreme situation such as when Iran has decided it is necessary to respond to military actions conducted against it and/or it perceives that the parties involved in launching these operations had direct support from Azerbaijan. We, however, should focus on your word "attack." There are various ways in which a hypothetical attack on Azerbaijan could occur. They would include ballistic missile and aircraft strikes; waterborne operations in or from the Caspian; and covert actions including utilizing proxy terrorist groups - all of these involve mostly kinetic actions. There are also non-kinetic methods such as cyber that have to be considered as well. Since the oil and gas industry is Azerbaijan's economic "center of gravity" then it is vulnerable to any hypothetical attack. Iran would have to consider how the international community, particularly European nations who are customers for Azerbaijani oil and gas, would perceive this aggression.
Q. There are some questions surrounding Azerbaijan’s policy towards Iran: Can “balance diplomacy” work anymore?
What are the options if it fails this time?A. Since regaining its independence, Azerbaijan has maintained a delicate relationship with its southern neighbour. There have been ups and downs with Baku's relationship with Tehran but at the same time Baku has been careful not to overly antagonize Tehran. While I foresee no major changes to this cautious approach assuming no dramatic changes in the strategic situation, it is undetermined if this approach can be maintained if there is some sort of military action taken against Iran. That being said, I do not anticipate that Azerbaijan will actively seek to become part of any potential military operation against Iran, but will rather vigorously work to remind the leading western powers that Iran has other borders besides those along the Persian/Arabian Gulf and that Iranian responses to military strikes or to perceived covert actions may affect Azerbaijan.
Q. Also, we should not forget the millions of Iranian Azeris there. What might be their role if tensions in the region grow?
A.It is difficult to determine what role Iranian Azeris will play in any potential crisis situation. While the Iranian Azeris have grievances toward the ruling authorities it is also known that Iranian Azeris are integrated to an extent in the multi-national nature that is modern Iran. Key members of the political and religious elite are from the Azeri community. Suffice it to say, the situation with Iranian Azeris is both complicated and complex and the role they may play in any crisis situation will be largely situation dependent.
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