Reasons for the failure of the Brussels meeting...

The highly anticipated trilateral meeting involving Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and President of the European Union (EU) Council Charles Michel, which had been scheduled for the end of October, will not take place as initially planned. The cancellation of this pivotal meeting has raised concerns about the ongoing efforts to facilitate dialogue and reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the Georgian Crisis, Toivo Klaar, confirmed that the meeting would not proceed as scheduled due to time constraints. The sudden change in plans has left the diplomatic community and stakeholders eager for progress deeply disappointed.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan publicly stated that the meeting's plan in Brussels had been disrupted due to Azerbaijan's unavailability. Mirzoyan contended that Azerbaijani President Aliyev could not find time for the meeting, laying the blame squarely on Azerbaijan's shoulders.

In response to Mirzoyan's assertions, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry issued a statement defending its commitment to the peace process. The Ministry maintained that, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan has consistently demonstrated its dedication to advancing the peace process and fostering dialogue.

Rasim Musabekov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Relations, expressed his view on the situation in an interview with Turan. Musabekov highlighted that a quadrilateral meeting involving the EU, France, Germany, and Armenia had taken place on October 5 in Granada. He suggested that French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz may have sought to present themselves as guarantors during that meeting, positioning the Brussels meeting as a continuation of these efforts. Musabekov emphasized that Azerbaijan did not perceive the need for French involvement in the negotiation process, even if Germany's Chancellor were present.

The deputy further explained that President Aliyev had expressed a desire for Turkey's participation in the negotiations. However, this proposal was reportedly met with resistance, leading to a deadlock.

Political commentator Arastun Orujlu provided his analysis to Radio Azadlig, speculating about the underlying factors at play. He proposed two plausible explanations for the meeting's cancellation. One possibility is that Baku may have rejected mediation or adjusted its position in response to the Western collective's behavior, particularly the EU's alignment with Armenia.

Orujlu also considered the influence of Russia as a significant factor. He suggested that Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks extend beyond bilateral relations and are part of a broader global struggle. The expert pointed out that shortly after the Tehran meeting involving the foreign ministers of Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey, and Armenia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov contacted Baku. Orujlu speculated that negotiations regarding the trilateral meeting may have been a subject of discussion during this call. He surmised that Russia could have exerted persuasive pressure on Azerbaijan, leading to its decision to withdraw from the Brussels meeting.

Orujlu acknowledged that the mediator of the negotiations would wield significant influence over the terms of the peace treaty. However, he emphasized his skepticism about the complete elimination of the Brussels format, as its disappearance would not be advantageous to either Azerbaijan or Armenia. Instead, Russia could potentially leverage the situation to secure a peace treaty on its own terms, which may not align with Azerbaijan's interests.

The cancellation of the trilateral meeting has left many questions unanswered and has underscored the complexity of the ongoing peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The diplomatic landscape in the South Caucasus remains in flux, with Russia's influence and Western involvement continuing to shape the trajectory of negotiations and reconciliation efforts.