The Next Adventurous Idea

A series of unbelievable ideas continue to help Armenia get out of its predicament. Adventurous ideas going beyond the limit fly in the sky. As the last resort of people is to grab at the straw while they are sinking, Grant Agasyan also wants to mobilize the Armenian society, which has lost hope with more ambitious goals.

Russian businessperson, philanthropist and public figure of Armenian origin Hrant Agasyan proposed to buy the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic from Azerbaijan in order to stop hostilities. “We, Armenian entrepreneurs from all over the world, are ready to end this war once and for all, to conclude a deal. We are ready to evaluate this land and redeem claims to it completely once and for all from our Azerbaijani colleagues,” Grant said.

Grant proposes to conduct an independent assessment of the land, taking into account its real market value and the current state of real estate after the bombing, or to calculate how much the budgets of the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides do not receive because of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. “We, Armenian entrepreneurs, will collect the  required sum, buy this land and give it to the people who live on it,” the young billionaire assures.

I do not humiliate because it is an enemy state. Armenian people can logically be called a sick society due to the propaganda motives that poisoned the brains of the enemy at the level of national ideology from childhood. In the 21st century, the state, which is the bearer of such an ideology at the state level, seems to have lost not only the state models of the modern era but also the basic concepts of the state in the classical sense. The fact that a state puts aside its interests and pragmatic interests and makes its nation miserable for an uncertain future must be considered a remnant of truly medieval thought.

Of course, the claim that Azerbaijani lands were purchased by Armenian billionaires is ridiculous. An attempt by a state without the power to defend itself to purchase the lands of other state for money is simply nonsense. However, all the economic units of Armenia can be easily purchased by the mobilization of Azerbaijan's own domestic resources.

If the Karabakh War had not been considered a Patriotic War for Azerbaijan, it could have easily taken over the lands at the expense of mercenaries at a low cost of foreign exchange reserves. But if a nation has a sense of dignity, national pride, and a sense of the sanctity of its land, the abundance of its wealth should not overshadow its national honor. That's why our people are fighting, we do not use our money as a means of purchasing.

The fact that Armenia has not been able to build anything on the Azerbaijani lands acquired by the Russian-Armenian military for 27 years shows what investment potential they have as a state. We are not the only ones who have seen what investments have not been made in the returned lands. In international reports, it is also mentioned in red letters. The World Investment Report 2020 states that over the past six years, only $ 1.6 billion in Foreign Direct Investment has been invested in Armenia (for comparison, $ 19 billion in Azerbaijan). By 2019, the volume of FDI inflows into the country was only $ 5.9 billion (this figure is $ 32 billion in Azerbaijan). If you have not been able to attract foreign investment to the country in the presence of stable economic conditions, how will you do it during the escalation of the military conflict?

Armenia, a state that has become completely isolated from the region's energy projects, is thinking about how to fill the state budget with donations, rather than thinking about the infrastructure that it can use to build its economic base. In fact, a state in this situation should think about how to get out of the situation, rather than being deprived of stable financial resources and achieving a fragile balance of payments through financial transfers of compatriots living abroad.

Armenia's budget as a state or company budget...

Since the beginning of the war, Azerbaijan has not made any changes to the state budget in terms of the directions of expenditures envisaged at the beginning of the year. There was no force majeure in defense expenditures. The budget deficit has not increased. In general, no budget sequestration has been applied.

Armenia's state budget had been able to withstand this expenditure "blow" only for 10 days after the start of the war. Armenia has been forced to increase its current expenditures in the state budget. The expenditure growth did not increase the share in GDP in percentages but increased it many times. When the budget of Armenia was approved, although its budget deficit was projected at 2.4% of GDP, this figure has risen to 7.4% since the last change.

The Armenian leadership still does not understand that their budget revenues as a state are smaller than Azerbaijan's single extra-budgetary fund. Azerbaijan's budget burden on repair and construction and the social budget burden is again greater than Armenia's.

Before coming up with the idea of purchasing, Grant Agasyan had to pay attention to the wealth, foreign exchange reserves, and the range of export earnings of the state about which he was worried. Then he would see that Armenia's foreign exchange reserves, which are so symbolic, are smaller than the liquid potential of medium-sized companies in the world. There are football clubs in the world whose players are more expensive than the Armenian budget.

The purchasing fantasy of the one being deep in debt

It would be a great advantage for G. Agasyan to be able to think not about purchasing but about the continuation of the existence of the state with the name of Armenia. If they can “cook their economy in their own oil”, it will be an important advantage for them. The problem is that they do not have such fiscal potential. The state can no longer finance its expenditures. Armenia had to bear more debt on behalf of the state. Since the beginning of the war, the share of Armenia's public debt in GDP has increased by 6%. The amount of public debt has already exceeded $ 6 billion.

As a state, first, you should think about when to repay this debt, and then you can poison society with crazy ideas, such as the purchase of land. Of course, the sick idea of ​​businessmen to buy land with money is a medieval mentality. In those centuries, lands were purchased with money. There was more mercantilist thought than the sanctity of the land. But in the 21st century, can an institution, which has not taken the form of a state with a population of 2-3 million, receive a share from a state with a population of 10 million, natural resources, foreign exchange reserves, and a large territory? Moreover, we have to pursue a policy of economic expansion against Armenia with Azerbaijan's growing financial resources and investments amounting to 10 billion in the coming years. We have been very humble neighbors. Now, we must radically change the nature of our neighborly relations. We must keep all the vectors of oppressive power on Armenia's head like the “Sword of Damocles”.

Azerbaijan's policy of economic expansion against Armenia

The first thing we need to do after the liberation of our Azerbaijani lands is to demand a large amount of compensation for the material and non-material losses suffered by Azerbaijan for 27 years.

Grant Agasyan should know that it is impossible to keep the state afloat forever due to external impulses. There is a proverb of Azerbaijanis: “You cannot sit at meat with the meal coming from others, but if you do, you can be full up.” A country's budget cannot be filled with foreign aid, but in case it is filled, it will not be enough.

The story named "Whose money are you spending on whom?" is familiar to many. There are four combinations of spending money: (i) if someone spends his/her money for himself/herself; he/she will look at the price and quality, (ii) if someone spends his/her money for someone else; he/she will only look at the price, will not look at the quality, (iii) if someone spends someone else's money for himself/herself, he will only look at the quality, will not look at the price, (iv) if someone spends someone else's money for someone else, he/she will not look at the price or quality.

It is very easy to understand what the message is for Armenia. Armenia spends someone else's money, it looks at neither price nor quality.

The end: Grant Agasyan should not forget that Armenia's friends are not rich enough to buy Azerbaijani lands, and Azerbaijan is not poor enough to sell their lands. However, Azerbaijan is rich enough to buy Armenia as an object, and Armenia (the object of Russia) is needy and poor enough to sell itself.