The result of the elections in Armenia is influenced by the perception of Russia by the Armenians

Despite the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan, the leader of the ruling party Nikol Pashinyan retains a strong pre-election position. Experts believe that he will win about a third of the votes in the elections, more than all of its competitors can put together.

Political strategist Vigen Hakobyan believes that apart from Pashinyan, the Dashnaktsutyun-Reviving Armenia Bloc headed by ex-President Robert Kocharian, the Fatherland-Republican Party of Armenia, the Prosperous Armenia Party and, possibly the Armenian National Congress (the leader is the first president of the RA Levon Ter-Petrosyan) have chances to win.

The first president in this five is considered an outsider, and obviously knowing this L. Ter-Petrosyan recently made a shocking proposal to his competitors to unite into one anti-Pashinyan bloc, the Alliance of National Accord. This put an end to rumors of a hidden link between Pashinyan and Ter-Petrosyan. Armenian society is agitated by Ter-Petrosyan's sensational appeal for unity with his eternal enemies from the Karabakh clan - Kocharian, who ousted the first president from the highest post, and his follower Sargsyan.

However, neither Kocharyan nor Sargsyan agreed to Ter-Petrosyan's appeal. This does not exclude the possibility that in the next pre-election days, yesterday's enemies will really unite, and then the question will arise: Who will become the leader of the new bloc, for whom will the political union act?

If this does not happen, then in the current situation the main struggle in the elections will start between Pashinyan and Kocharyan, Hakobyan said. The logic of the struggle suggests that if Ter-Petrosyan's appeal is supported, then the first and third presidents must fight for Robert Kocharian's return to power.

Armenia is discussing the words of Ter-Petrosyan, who said, "The reproduction of the Pashinyan regime is much more dangerous for Armenia and Artsakh than the possible or perceived threats from Azerbaijan and Turkey." Ter-Petrosyan believes that the unification of the former presidents will soften the depressive atmosphere in Armenia; this will help them to have more votes in the elections. However, Ter-Petrosyan does not explain how the unification of three presidents, two of whom are directly blamed by society for military defeat, will remove the national depression. Is it possible to lift this depression if there is no new popular political leader in Armenia? Will voters have to choose from politicians, each of whom is trailed by corruption, murder and lies?

The Armenian blog "Political Geography of the South Caucasus" lists the arguments against Pashinyan's re-election as prime minister: Pashinyan is completely discredited inside and outside the country. He destroyed the system of state administration, dismantled the national project and the entire defense system of the country.

The second motive is the unification of the authority of the three presidents, which will contribute to the common cause. Recently, there has been a concept of “uniting anti-ratings” in Armenia, and since Pashinyan successfully managed to eliminate the authority of all social and political forces in the country, this really became the main factor. Pursuing the political elite of Armenia, Pashinyan created conditions for its unification, the blogger writes.

The political activist Ishkhan Verdyan is sure that the Armenian people are mortally tired of the national ideology of eternal enmity with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Armenians do not want a repetition of the war for Karabakh; the country does not have material, moral and human resources, not only for another hot, but also even for a cold war. Since Pashinyan is the only one in whose political platform there are no hints of military revanchist, the majority will vote for the current government, says Verdyan.

Traditionally, it was believed in Armenia that all the main players in the elections have in common the desire to gain Moscow's support. If this dilemma persists after the defeat in the war, then Pashinyan is trying to get out of the image of the Soros-enemy of Russia that has developed behind him. Kocharian and Sargsyan have been pro-Russian politicians since the beginning of their political careers. If the next leader of the country is indeed determined by Putin, then Pashinyan will act as the locomotive of Putin's transport of the project through Zangezur. Among the supporters of the three presidents, there are demands to abandon not only the restoration of this corridor, but even from the implementation of the points of the Statement of November 9, 2020. In this situation, it is beneficial for Moscow to contribute to Pashinyan's victory.

However, there is a radically different opinion. Political scientist Armen Vardanyan writes that the choice of the Kremlin does not influence the voter's decision. The voter is interested in security issues and solving social problems.

"The desire to gain legitimacy from external forces will cause negative in society. Especially after the autumn war in Artsakh (the self-name of Nagorno-Karabakh) and Russia's neutrality in this war. The mentality in society has changed. If earlier political forces tried to show that they were supported by the Kremlin, now do not advertise, as this may alienate the voter," he said. In this case, Pashinyan will need his unfading image of the Soros-destroyer of Russia.

Perhaps the result of the June 20 elections will depend on how Armenian voters see Russia now: an enemy or a defender. The paradox is that in both variants Pashinyan has high chances to win.