The political mechanism continues its functio

It was clear that the effect of the April 24 address of the President of the United States would not last long, and, as expected, both the government and the opposition returned to their agendas. In the economic sphere, the government's main task is to find new sources of debt and repay at least part of the overdue debts or postpone them again.

The market economy system greatly simplifies the work of the government because the business world itself seeks and finds ways to solve problems. Municipal social assistance is another factor that facilitates the work of the government.

In international relations, especially with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the government is maneuvering 180 degrees in the opposite direction to restore ties that have been strained for the past eight years.

As for domestic policy, the government, which has not yet succeeded in splitting the opposition union, has returned to the ideological foundations of the early 1990s: as the signs of “Rabia” (“R4bia”) are no longer visible, professor mullah of Hagia Sophia Mosque, who was not afraid to act as an open enemy of the country's secular system for a short time, was fired and sent to the university where he came from.

Today, the ruling party of 18.5 years is designed not only by the 87-year-old Oğuzhan Asiltürk but also by itself. Although President Erdoğan maintains his title of Turkey's strongest political leader by conducting objective public opinion polls on a weekly basis, he is naturally concerned about the low ratings of his party and the People's Alliance, which was created together with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and makes various political moves and maneuvers to raise the rating again. All of these are processes that are the requirements of normal and democratic politics.

As for the opposition, its victory in 11 metropolises in the March 31, 2019, municipal elections and strong support for Ekrem İmamoğlu, especially, in the June 23 re-elections in Istanbul are skillfully assessed not only by the main opposition party but also by the other two parties of the Nation Alliance.

When the opposition Welfare Party won in Ankara and Istanbul in 1994, the leader of the Welfare Party, Erbakan, ran in the December 24, 1995, parliamentary elections under the slogan "Our municipalities are writing epics", and the Islamist political party came out on top for the first time. The same processes are taking place now: Erdoğan in 1994 was replaced by Ekrem İmamoğlu in 2019, and Melih Gökçek in 1994 was replaced by Mansur Yavaş in 2019.

The Nation Alliance, which has raised its rating thanks to the continuous social assistance of municipalities, is able to set the agenda and put the government in a difficult position by being ahead of the government on some issues.

For the first time in its 18.5-year rule, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lagged behind the opposition in setting the agenda. Another interesting aspect is the division of politics within the Felicity Party, to which Mr. Erdoğan also belongs in terms of political origins: When Oğuzhan Asiltürk completely sided with the government, the leader of the Felicity Party, Temel Karamollaoğlu, stood by the Nation Alliance and dictates his terms of cooperation to the government (the government needs Adalat Valiyev).

The opposition alliance is training brainstorming to come to power by cooperating with two of Turkey's three most objective public opinion polls, not every week, but every day, even every hour (Turkey's ruling party should benefit from Zahid Oruj's experience of public opinion polls). The increase in pressure on the government by the two political parties broken away from the Justice and Development Party is metaphorically a requirement and necessity of democracy: because every political worldview operating within the terms of the constitution and the law on political parties is free to express itself.

The political arena is becoming more vibrant as the dose of salvos against the government by former Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, and former Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the economy, Ali Babacan, rises. Inspired by this vitality, the objective media also skillfully copes with its task of informing the public by embracing its work more vigorously. For example, the fact that sanitary materials were sold to the ministry from the company of the husband of the Minister of Customs and Trade, Ruhsar Pekcan, was revealed by the correspondent of the OdaTV website with documents. The president was forced to dismiss since Pekcan first lied and refused to resign.

Observations show that President Erdoğan, the chairman of the Justice and Development Party and the most experienced and powerful figure in Turkish politics today, will run in the 2023 elections. The formula for this is not as complicated as Vladimir Putin's constitutional amendment but is that the Assembly decides to hold early presidential elections. The Justice and Development Party, which has struggled to provide financial support to its supporters, especially to religious foundations, since the transfer of control of major municipalities to the opposition, has two options: if the ratings continue to fall in the summer months, early elections can take place in the autumn of this year.

If there is an improvement in the rankings in the next 3-4 months, Mr. Erdoğan will look for ways to further improve it, in which case early elections will be held in the fall of 2022. In order to implement any option, the government's eyes and ears will be on the next Halkbank trial that will be held in Washington.

On the trial where a 30-year-old young man from Tabriz made the feathers fly in Turkey...

Mayis Alizade