The image side of the Russia-Africa Summit and the grain deal

The Russia-Africa summit, held in St. Petersburg on July 27-28, did not bring the Kremlin the desired results against the background of Western sanctions caused by the  war in  Ukraine. On the eve of the summit, it became obvious that Moscow was facing significant setbacks in its African sphere of influence. The event was attended by a limited number of dignitaries: of the 54 invited African States, only 17 presidents and 10 prime ministers attended, unlike the 2019 summit, which was attended by 45 heads of State.

The summit was clearly overlooked by top officials of countries dominated by China, France and Western powers. China's growing influence in Africa has actually displaced Russia, and the situation has been exacerbated by the economic crisis in Russia.For example, China's direct investment in Africa has increased exponentially, significantly overtaking Russia in terms of investment, trade turnover and economic participation. Chinese loans to Africa for 2000-2019 are estimated at $153 billion. During this time, Russia's investments amounted to $ 17 billion. China's trade turnover with Africa in the amount of 200 billion is 10 times higher than Russia's.

The final declaration of the summit, consisting of 74 points, primarily emphasized cultural and political interaction, rather than substantial financial and economic cooperation. The reduction in the number of overlapping interests over the years has highlighted the limited achievements of this meeting.

Given Russia's current economic problems, it seems unlikely that Moscow organized the summit in order to bridge the investment gap with Africa. Instead, the focus seemed to be on image issues, especially in light of the upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa. Concerns about Putin's possible arrest by the International Criminal Court may have prompted Russia to seek closer ties with African countries, especially regarding the grain deal.

A significant volume of Ukrainian exports of grain and legumes, about 49 million tons, accounting for almost a quarter to Africa and a quarter to Asia, is an important commodity for several African countries experiencing food shortages, especially those that are in the sphere of influence of Russia. This situation probably forced them to take part in the summit.

The main discussions at the summit in St. Petersburg invariably concerned the war in Ukraine. Putin's attempts to shift the blame to NATO, drawing historical parallels with the Western colonial wars in Africa, did not find much response. The pragmatic leaders of Egypt, South Africa and the African Union Commission called on Putin to return to the grain deal and put an end to the conflict, stressing that this is currently the main factor linking Russian-African relations.

After the BRICS image summit, in which Putin is expected to attend virtually due to fears of arrest, the grain deal is likely to resume without serious obstacles and without prejudice to the parties.