The will of the voter is decisive

In a surprising twist, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made allegations against the opposition bloc, centering around video footage and Twitter messages. These accusations, coming from Erdoğan himself, a prominent figure in Turkish politics and public administration, have caught many off guard. Bulent Arinc, a founding member of the AKP, has expressed his desire to investigate these allegations, although government representatives are avoiding addressing the issue. The Fatullahist Terrorist Organization (FETÖ), known for its conflict with Erdoğan, has played a role in bringing these claims to the forefront.

Opposition bloc presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has come to the defense of Muharrem Ince, who is at the center of the allegations, while prosecutors and investigators maintain a calm approach despite the release of purported photos of Ince. However, Ince, unable to demonstrate strength in the face of blackmail, has chosen to withdraw from the presidential nomination. This decision echoes his behavior after the 2018 presidential election when he quickly admitted defeat instead of taking expected decisive steps. Ince's resignation is unlikely to significantly strengthen either Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu, leading to divided votes among party members. Nonetheless, Ince's departure has undeniably raised the morale of opposition bloc supporters.

As the Turkish economy continues to decline, the government's attempts to address the problems seem inadequate. While purchasing currency from Istanbul's Tahtakale market daily and adding it to the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, the government is also resorting to selling gold reserves from the Treasury to prevent further devaluation of the Turkish lira. The fact that the government, which previously boasted of accumulating 700 tons of gold reserves, has sold over 100 tons in recent weeks indicates a concerning situation. While Erdoğan adopts a linguistic style reminiscent of Turgut Özal from the late 1980s for the final stretch of the election campaign, opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu focuses on making concrete promises.

Within the established political mechanism, figures like Meral Akşener, Mansur Yavaş, and Ekrem Imamoğlu have taken the lead at rallies, playing a proactive role. For instance, Kılıçdaroğlu has already invited university graduates working abroad to return to Turkey. President Erdoğan, who has announced a 50% salary increase for government officials, appears to have made advance arrangements by replacing currency and gold substitutes in the Central Bank and the Treasury. However, he is well aware that these salary increases, even if he wins the election, are likely to fuel inflation.

Over the past month, fierce disputes have erupted between the Presidential Communications presidency and the opposition, with allegations of "interference in the election by fraudulent means." The opposition accuses the Communications presidency of serving as the AKP's election propaganda machine. This controversy took an unexpected turn when Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu issued an ultimatum to Russia on Twitter, stating, "If you want our friendship to continue after May 15, keep your hand off [the elections]. We are still in favor of cooperation and peace."

Azerbaijan and Russia have been the primary countries providing material and moral support to President Erdoğan's quest for re-election. However, those who have openly and extensively supported Turkey in this regard often overlook the paramount importance of the Turkish voters' will. Attempting to influence a country that has experienced power shifts through democratic elections for 73 years using methods reminiscent of Cold War-era dictatorships may have the opposite effect.

With just two days remaining until the elections, an analysis suggests that the divisions and alliances between rivals will not shift significantly, remaining below the 2%.