Russian Expert: The Kremlin Will Maintain Balance in Its Relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan

Yerevan/12.09.13/Turan-ArmInfo : The Kremlin will continue to maintain a balance in its relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan in all matters - from the economy to the Karabakh settlement. This opinion was expressed by the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies analyst Sergey Markedonov.

"The visit of the President of Russia to Azerbaijan on August 13, of course, took place against the certain cooling of Russian-Armenian relations in connection with the planned initialing by Armenia of the EU Association Agreement.

Yerevan, in turn, was alarmed by the military-technical cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan, which has reached $ 4 billion and could increase. However, in order not to make hasty conclusions and findings, it is advisable not to take Putin's trip to Baku from the general context of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. By the way, in August in Baku Aliyev hotly approved Putin's word that repeated Russia's unchanging formula for solving the problem through peaceful and political means," said the expert.

In the view of Markedonov, moves by the Presidents and high-ranking officials are not made in a vacuum. They have a background and some resources that limit their intentions. Today, Azerbaijan has a special place in the Russian policy in the Caucasus.

However, Baku, on the one hand, has strong ties with the West, particularly in the energy sector, but it also has smooth, although not without problems, relations with Moscow. Meanwhile, for many years not Georgia, but Azerbaijan was considered as the main headache for Russia in the region.

According to Markedonov, Baku and Yerevan will eventually make the choice in favor of either the West or Russia. Azerbaijan, which is skeptical of the integration projects by Moscow, is also not interested in engaging in the possible military operation of the U.S. and its allies against neighboring Iran.

"Naturally, the Azerbaijani leadership does not want to be an object to democratic exams, as Georgia. Hence, the balance between different centers of power, which does not involve hard choices. Thus, the Russian- Azerbaijani relations are extremely contradictory," emphasizes the expert.

"Moscow surely understands that the rejection of an alliance with Armenia can and will be supported and approved in Baku, but Azerbaijan will not make a decisive step in the direction of Russia because of its strong relations with Turkey, the U.S. and the EU. And hard choices made by Russia instantly expose the inflation of its mediating role in resolving the Karabakh conflict, which so far has been not only trump card for Yerevan and Baku, but also an important argument for building relations with Western partners," Markedonov summed up. -02D-