US Analyst Discusses Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan Dispute

The southern part of the Caspian has become more complex over past weeks, as tensions again broke out between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan over disputed gas reserves.

     Two neighborly nations have exchanged bitter messages after a Turkmen exploration vessel reportedly started working on an oil and gas field disputed by the two.

     Ashgabat accuses an Azeri border patrol of committing “unlawful actions” against a Turkmen vessel exploring a disputed field, known as Serdar in Turkmenistan and Kapaz in Azerbaijan, which contains an estimated 80 million tons of oil and 32 billion cubic meters of gas.

    Although unlikely to lead to anything serious, many in the West worry that the confrontation is likely to further reduce the odds for a Trans-Caspian Pipeline and will make potential Caspian investors a little more nervous.

     TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent asked James Coyle, a director of Chapman University's Center for Global Education, author of the blog “Eurasian Energy Analysis”, for possible outcomes of the recent Baku-Ashgabat problem.

     Over the past 25 years Mr. Coyle has held a number of positions in the federal government, including director of Middle East studies at the US Army War College, first secretary for political-military affairs at the US Embassy in Ankara. He is co-author of "Politics of the Middle East: Culture and Conflict" published in December 2003.

     Question: Could you please describe the roots of Baku-Ashgabat problem? Why do both sides accuse each other?   Because the problem doesn’t it get solved, does tension frequently rise. 

     Answer: In February 1998, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan issued a statement saying the waters of the Caspian would be divided between the two countries along the median line. But where exactly the median line was drawn was not specified. Turkmenistan agreed on the principle of dividing the Sea, but not the seabed or the minerals under the sea. As a result, there has been a long-running dispute over the energy fields between the two countries.

     Until a final agreement is reached by littoral countries the status of the is unknown. Azerbaijan appears to have a stronger claim to the mineral rights. They rest their claim on the 1970 division of the Caspian by the Soviet Ministry of Oil and Gas, which granted the Serdar/Kyapaz field to Azerbaijan.

     Azerbaijan claims that there is a bilateral agreement from 2008 that neither country will develop Serdar/Kyapaz until the ownership question is resolved. The other two fields in dispute, not included in the 2008 agreement, are the Azeri/Omar and the Chirag/Osman fields. While Turkmenistan has challenged Azerbaijan’s right to develop these fields, these challenges have been overtaken by events: i.e. the development of these fields by a BP-led consortium.

     Question: How do you see the solution to this problem?

     Is the International Court of Justice the best place for finding the solution?

     Answer: Ownership would best be resolved through bilateral negotiations between the two countries. The International Court of Justice is not the best place for this question, because the court’s charter specifies that both parties in the dispute must agree in advance to abide by the final decision by the court.

     Obtaining an Azerbaijani agreement to such arbitration would require negotiation in any case, so why not negotiate the actual question instead of the venue for deciding the question? Even if the ICJ was to agree to hear the case, who would enforce the decision against the losing party? The Court has no enforcement mechanism, so negotiations remain the only path to a successful resolution of the question.

     Question: Some believe that the confrontation will also be a further setback to a Trans-Caspian pipeline to bring Turkmen gas to Europe. Is Russia involved in the Baku-Ashgabat tension?

     Also, do you think that the EU, US or other international powers might/can moderate between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to solve the dispute?

      Answer: Opening the issue to international powers would invite the Russians to step forward. As Moscow is opposed to the construction of a Trans Caspian Pipeline; one would expect their intervention would exacerbate the problem to foment discord between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

       Other powers, such as the United States and the European Union, have shown little interest in involving themselves in the dispute. Given the success rate of great power mediation efforts in the area, such as the Minsk Group, there is no indication that bringing in third parties would have any beneficial effects. -25B-