Wayne Merry: "Once Azerbaijan Can Lose Powerful Friends"

The strategic importance of Azerbaijan for the United States is reduced, and the official Baku does not show much interest in strengthening relations with the United States.

Such an opinion in an interview with the Voice of America was stated by the head investigator of the Council on American Foreign Policy for Europe and Eurasia E. Wayne Merry.

Responding to a question if there is a connection between the pressure on civil society activists in Azerbaijan and US-funded institutions and a possible reorientation of Baku's foreign policy towards rapprochement with Russia, Merry replied:

"From the side it is difficult to characterize the motives of those who determine the policy in Baku.

But the fact is that in recent months Azerbaijan has more and more refused to show even minimal respect for the feelings of America and has resorted to such steps that irritate not only the US government and President Obama, but also important people in Congress. Maybe in Baku they do not attach importance to this, because they are always talking about how important Azerbaijan is, etc. But for such power as the United States discontent accumulates, and at some point it's time to "off the account." The United States attaches great importance to Azerbaijan as a transit point in the northern transportation network to Afghanistan. However, due to the reduction of America's role in Afghanistan the role of Azerbaijan is also reducing. Amid growing tensions in the US relations with Russia, the value of what is happening in the regions of the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea is moving to the background for Washington.

In my opinion, the day will come when the US will see less importance of Azerbaijan for Washington than it now seems," said the expert.

And how much is the West important to Azerbaijan?

In answering this question, the expert noted that "the growing oil revenues in Azerbaijan in recent years have opened the way for large-scale corruption and corrosion."

On the other hand, the expert continued Ilham Aliyev and his entourage deal with the internal situation and increasingly lose their view of the outside world.

"Finally, at the global level Azerbaijan considers itself an extremely important player, though, in the priorities of the West and the US, it has no such significance. US should clarify to Azerbaijan that, in comparison with what was 5-10 years ago, the role of Azerbaijan in the priorities of America is not so great. The changing energy market and reduction of America's military presence in Afghanistan belittle its role. This trend will probably continue to fall and the importance of Azerbaijan will fall, too," said Merry.

Does Azerbaijan need the West?

On this question the expert answered as follows:

"If Azerbaijan wants to withdraw from a course on authoritarianism based on the power of oil, then yes, it needs the West. It is for this reason that the West reached out to Azerbaijan after the collapse of the USSR. But if the political leaders of Azerbaijan believe that they are so rich and independent and there is no need to consider the interests of the West and America, then they can go their own way. However, this is a relatively small country caught in the midst between Iran and Russia, and there may come a time when it will have a need for strong friends.

And then it will turn out that it does not have such friends."  -06D--