Stratfor: Russia will strengthen in the Caucasus

According to the American analytical center Stratfor, in 2014 Russia will seek to retain the old and gain new positions in the world. At the same time , it will retain flexible foreign policy and the ability to compromise.

Moscow will become a mediator in resolving complex issues and improve the position in the Middle East, relations with China and Japan.

 The Kremlin can prevent rapprochement of Georgia and Moldova with the EU, to maintain and strengthen influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and will have a significant impact on the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2015, and the project of the Eurasian Partnership to will strengthen and expand due to Central Asian countries. The European Union will not interfere in Russia.

However , a well-known political CIA analyst Paul Goble said in his interview with  "Voice of America " that  he skeptically accepts the forecasts by  Stratfor, which exaggerates the influence of Russia in the world.

"As a result, in  their analyzes Moscow looks stronger than it is in reality , and the West looks weaker. I do not think that Russia will be more successful in the "near abroad" this year than it was ever before," said Goble .

  At the same time there are no less serious challenges  in Russia: the differences within the Kremlin , economic instability and growing authoritarianism of Putin will serve a poor tool for sustainable stability. The concentration of power in the hands of one leader will play against Russia in the long term. 

"The tools used by Putin to revive the Russian state have worn out. Unhealthy economy will contribute to social unrest , while state mechanisms traditionally used to control this disorder,  are losing influence. Putin will be able to cope with the growing instability in the Kremlin and on the streets , but the process he will make the state more dependent on itself,"  reads the  analysis  by Stratfor.

   "Stratfor Forecast ignores several important components of the growing domestic crisis in Russia, including - the escalation of regional unrest, a wave of ethnic revival , religious polarization of society and the growth of separatist sentiment. While the North Caucasus remains a powder keg in Russia, conflict sprawled across Russian Federation - from Kaliningrad and the Middle Volga region to Siberia and the Far East," said Bugayski in his interview with  "Voice of America."

Russia will try to consolidate the gains achieved in the past year in the former Soviet Union. This year will be unstable for Ukraine with variable activity of political protests. But Kiev will remain under economic and political influence of Russia until the presidential elections scheduled for the beginning of 2015. West will support the opposition leaders, such as Vitali Klitschko , but Russia will  not be able  to hold a dominant influence in Ukraine.

   Moldova and Georgia will be the key points of confrontation between Russia and the West. These countries can expect the same political and economic pressures faced by Ukraine with Russia, which will do its utmost to prevent their further rapprochement with the European Union,  believe experts s of Stratfor.

Russia is too busy  with Ukraine to take a tough stance on Georgia and Moldova ,  objected the President  of the  Jamestown Foundation, Glen Howard. According to him,  the attempts of Vladimir Putin to keep influence in post-Soviet states threaten the security of its own position in the Kremlin.

" The cry of Navalni"  “stop feeding the Caucasus” is  replaced now by another call  "stop to feed Ukraine," says Howard.  If the Russians wake up and feel that their country buys Ukraine, as well as Germany bought Greece, Putin may have serious problems  at home, especially in an economic downturn in Russia."

 Howard is convinced, that support of Georgia’s   joining the European Union is much more powerful than in Ukraine, and even if "Vladimir Putin attempts to use the same pressure as in Ukraine , his efforts will fail."

Russia will maintain a strong position in all three Caucasian states this year , although the US- Iranian talks open doors  for gradually activation of Iran and Turkey in the region. Iran will seek to increase the social and political influence in Azerbaijan, while Turkey will try to mediate in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in an attempt to restore relations with Armenia. Nevertheless, both Turkey and Iran should decide too serious problem in other areas this year to make significant progress in the Caucasus , which will allow Russia to maintain a dominant role in the region. -02D-