"Azerbaijan cannot break away from Russia"

In a move that underscores the evolving dynamics in the South Caucasus, Armenia and the United States are set to conduct joint military exercises from September 11 to 20, titled "EAGLE PARTNER 2023." This development was officially announced by the Ministry of Defense of Armenia.

The joint exercises will take place on the premises of the ZAR Center in Armenia and are primarily designed to prepare units for international peacekeeping missions. According to the Ministry of Defense, the overarching goal of the drills is to enhance operational compatibility among participating units while fostering the exchange of best practices in management and tactical relations.

This military collaboration has not gone unnoticed by Armenia's neighbor to the east, Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijan has taken part in certain peace exercises under the banner of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it has not engaged in direct military exercises with the United States. Reports suggest that Azerbaijani-US military cooperation has faced challenges and experienced a degree of cooling over the past decade.

Elman Nasirov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Relations, in an interview with Turan,  emphasized the significance of the US-Armenia joint exercises, stating, "We are not merely witnessing joint exercises between the United States and Armenia on Armenian soil. These are joint military exercises involving two states that are considered both allies and adversaries of Russia. This context imbues these exercises with a distinctive geopolitical significance."

Nasirov further highlighted Armenia's recent hosting of the European Union's first civil and military missions on its territory, suggesting that this could mark the initial steps toward the establishment of NATO's mission in Armenia.

Regarding Azerbaijan's relationship with the United States, Nasirov stressed that the two nations are strategic partners, sharing common ground on key international issues such as global peace, security, and counterterrorism efforts. However, he noted that as of now, the prospect of military exercises with the United States taking place  is not on the Azerbaijani agenda. He emphasized that Azerbaijan's policies are guided by regional security considerations and its national interests.

Political commentator Arastun Orujlu, in an interview with Radio Azadlig, weighed in on the matter, pointing out that the expanding military cooperation between Armenia and the United States should not go unnoticed in Azerbaijan. He noted that Azerbaijan had previously engaged in extensive military programs with the United States, particularly in the Caspian Basin, which was a key area of cooperation. However, this collaboration dwindled following Azerbaijan's concessions to Russia in the Caspian region in 2013, leading to the dismantling of related infrastructure. Despite a new agreement on the status of the Caspian in 2018, such cooperation has not regained its previous momentum.

Orujlu argued that these developments underscore Azerbaijan's political alignment with Russia and its limited inclination to strengthen ties with the West. He asserted, "In essence, Azerbaijan cannot distance itself from Russia."

In light of Armenia's expanding military ties with the United States amid regional complexities, expert contend that it is imperative for Azerbaijan to carefully assess these developments and their implications. However, he express skepticism about the prospects of significant future Azerbaijani-US military cooperation, largely attributing this to Azerbaijan's geographical proximity to Russia and the broader geopolitical  interests in the region.