The demonstration ended with rubber bullets, water cannon, baton charges and arrests – an all-too-common denouement to protests in Azerbaijan. But were the scenes in Baku on March 10 the sign of a swelling popular movement that could topple President Ilham Aliyev, as the opposition would have us believe? Or were they merely a minor drama involving a small rent-a-mob bent on provocation and with little support within the country, as the governmen...

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