Political analysts grant some Erdogan’s achievements in negotiations with Putin

Note that the parties have signed a memorandum on peace settlement of the military dispute in Syria. The memorandum provides for ceasefire between the warring parties in the Syrian province of Idlib. It should be remembered that that the ceasefire regime takes effect since 0.00 March 6. Also, a 12 km security corridor near a route М4 Haseke – Aleppo, in the north of Syria. One must note that since March 15 Russia and Turkey are entering into patrolling in the region. Finally, the parties noted that the Syrian conflict has no military resolution, so they have agreed on further political consultations.

One has to admit the partition of Syria occurred in reality even despite statements of the leaders of Russia and Turkey that "we proceed from the need to comply with principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria", writes in social network Russian political analyst Vitaliy Arkov.

Particular emphasis needs to be placed on the fact that the route М4 (to be patrolled jointly – Edit.) parallels the Syrian-Turkish border, so it is obvious that the north of Syria gets under control of Ankara and Turkey-backed armed opposition detachments and terrorists from " Heyat Tahrir Ash-Sham " grouping.

It will suffice to mention that the ceasefire regime is unlikely to last long: the point is that following results of the Moscow talks Erdogan has received a few he expected to. As a matter of fact, he had staked at whole Syria. According to information leak, Vladimir Putin conceded Bashar Asad. In other words, he will step down from the presidency and decline from participating in "free" elections under Russian and Turkish control”, Arkov inferred.

Note that Azerbaijani expert Elkhan Aleskerov holds that Putin and Erdogan have actually agreed on breaking off the offensive of the army of Syrian President Bashar Asad, so Ankara is minded to create "an Ottoman" buffer around Idlib.

Also, a head of the analytical center «Atlas», Elkhan Shahinogly pointed out that Putin’s attitude to Erdogan’s initiative on a new status of idlib remains clouded.  

The essential point to remember is that in a report of the analytical center «Atlas» Shahinogly underscores Erdogan’s statement that retains Turkey’s right to shoot back an Idlib’s shelling by Asad’s army. As viewed by the political analyst, Russian President’s consensus with Erdogan on some items is explained as being due to the fact that Turkey is capable of closing Bosporus and Dardanelles for passage of Russian warships.

The main issue is how long new Moscow arrangements will be complied with? - asks Shahinogly as saying that the parties have repeatedly agreed on Syria and that the ceasefire regime has always been violated.

One must assume that Russia is willing Turkey to fully neutralize «Heyrat Tahrir Ash-Sham» active in the north of Syria; however, Turkey is in no position to attain this goal. The question is that tens of thousands of terrorists have gathered in Idlib, and they are not minded to surrender, and even worse, they managed to force pro-Turkish forces («Free Syrian Army») up to the Turkish border.  

The essential point to remember is that should terrorists from «Heyat Tahrir Ash-Sham» rocket a Russian base, then Russian aircrafts and Asad’s army would bombard the town of Idlib, civilians be killed, and Turkey would not stand aloof from the fact. In other words, the fate of the Moscow arrangements is dependent upon behavior  of «Heyat Tahrir Ash-Sham». To resolve terrorists’ issue, Erdogan will have to draw up a special plan. One of his variants is as follows: «Heyat Tahrir Ash-Sham» would dissolve itself, some fragment forms a part «Free Syrian Army», other leave the town. Implementation of this plan is a matter of immense complexity, Elkhan Shahinogly summed up.

It should be added that Russian parliamentarians have given their appraisal of the results of the Syrian talks. Thus, the Federal Council believes that the Idlib ceasefire arrangements are a cause for optimism. In turn, the State Duma pointed out that external forces would be incapable to tear Moscow and Ankara apart.